By Dave Andrusko
While no one would ever accuse Thomas B. Edsall of being President Trump’s BFF (he often drops into the apocalyptic-laden language of the Never-Trumper), he writes columns for the New York Times that often are filled with fascinating insights.
His analysis today ran under a yawner of a headline: “Biden is Not out of the Woods.” Hardly a reason to read the piece. That is provided by the subhead: “Unanticipated electoral developments are affecting both presidential campaigns in surprising ways.”
To be clear, Edsall finds several reasons the Biden camp should be optimistic. But if you go through his arguments point by point, you betcha “Biden is not out of the woods.” Here are the major considerations 20 days out from the General Election:
*“One way to measure voter enthusiasm is to compare voter registration trends for each party,” Edsall writes. “A Democratic strategist who closely follows the data on a day-to-day basis wrote in a privately circulated newsletter: [Quoting from the letter]’Since last week, the share of white non-college over 30 registrations in the battleground states has increased by 10 points compared to September 2016, and the Democratic margin dropped 10 points to just 6 points. And there are serious signs of political engagement by white non-college voters who had not cast ballots in previous elections.’”
That paragraph alone ought to be enough to set off alarms. This is a demographic key to Mr. Trump’s coalition. And what is really unsettling, if you are a Democrat, are signs that this includes those “who had not cast ballots in previous elections.”
*A related point. “David Wasserman, House editor for The Cook Political Report, wrote on Oct. 1 that voter registration patterns over a longer period in key battleground states show that ‘Republicans have swamped Democrats in adding new voters to the rolls, a dramatic GOP improvement over 2016.’”
What are elections ultimately about? Turnout.
*Edsall continues. “More worrisome for Biden, the Pew survey shows modestly weakened support among Black women, a key Democratic constituency. Black women supported Clinton over Trump 98 to 1; this year they support Biden over Trump 91-6. Evangelical white protestants remain firmly in Trump’s camp, backing him by 61 points over Biden, the same margin he had against Clinton in 2016.”
If you look at prior surveys, I would argue there is every reason to believe that Mr. Trump could double his support in the Black community—up to 14% to 16%. What makes this Pew survey finding so significant is that Black men have expressed much more support for Mr. Trump than have Black women.
There is an all-out effort to fool White Evangelicals into voting for Biden. It won’t work.
Dr. James Dobson is a legendary Christian broadcaster whom I had the honor to meet years ago. In his October letter sent to his 800,000 supporters [www.drjamesdobson.org/newsletters/october-newsletter-2020], he, of course, does not endorse any candidate.
But he does lay out the issues that will guide his vote, including, “I’m voting for freedom of conscience for physicians and other professionals. …I am voting for life in all its dimensions. I am voting against euthanasia and physician-assisted suicide. ..I am voting for protection for the Church from oppressive politicians.”
*Democrats have pushed furiously for absentee voting. Talk about ironic, Edsall writes
Democratic strategists are also worried about how well their voters will perform in properly requesting, filling out and mailing in absentee ballots.
More than twice as many Biden voters as Trump voters — the actual ratio is 2.4 to 1 — plan to cast ballots by mail, according to polling by Pew. So far, however, Democratic requests for absentee ballots have not reached the levels that surveys suggest will be needed for the party to cast votes at full strength on Election Day.
An aside. It is depressing, to say the least, that over half of Edsall’s analysis—principally, in the close-to-slanderous aspersions made by the academics he queried but his own words as well—is typical of today’s journalist. They hate—no lesser word will do—anyone who supports President Trump.
The notion of “deplorables,” not surprisingly, came from the mouth of pro-abortion Hillary Clinton in the latter stages of 2016 when, thinking the election was in the bag, she felt liberated to say how she really felt about us.
To most media types, the pool of deplorables has only widened and deepened over the past four years.
Most would surely deny that they “hate America.” What is undeniable is that they sure hate us.