By Karen Cross, NRL Political Director
Editor’s note. This appears in the October digital issue of National Right to Life News. Please share the contents of this important edition with pro-life family and friends.
Even casual mainstream media viewers will notice an ongoing narrative that “the elections are all over for Republicans!” This has been the dominant theme for weeks but as we approach November 3, this insistence has only grown louder.
This could not be further from the truth.
The supposed authorities on public opinion in the media, which also assured everyone that Hillary Clinton would win the presidency in 2016, are all but certain that Joe Biden will beat President Trump. The FiveThirtyEight blog at the New York Times, which gave Trump a 29% chance of winning in 2016, is even more bullish on behalf of Democrats this time around. They have Trump with just a 14% chance.
The media elites, which have long been in the tank for Biden, have completely dismissed the prospect of the “hidden Trump voter” and deemphasized polls that show President Trump more than competitive in the key “Battleground states.”
The hidden (or “silent”) Trump voters are Americans who may be unwilling to disclose their pick to a pollster but will be voting for President Trump. And yet, there is solid research which suggests that these voters do, in fact, exist and may make all the difference– https://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/514664-hidden-trump-voters-could-have-big-november-impact
According to CloudResearch:
“11.7% of Republicans say they would not report their true opinions about their preferred presidential candidate on telephone polls. In contrast, just 5.4% of Democrats say they’d be reluctant to share their true voting intentions — roughly half the number of Republicans reluctant to tell the truth on phone polls.”
Given the current “cancel culture,” as it is called, this should not be surprising. Americans have seen what the cost of vocalizing their beliefs can be.
Nicholas Sandmann, a teenage Trump supporter attending the 2019 March for Life, was relentlessly attacked by the press and on social media. He filed a defamation suit against major media outlets. (CNN and the Washington Post have already decided to settle out of court while other cases are still in progress.)
Even with this considered, Trump and down-ballot Republicans are still running competitive races. A poll released October 6th from Suffolk University/USA Today of likely voters in the critical battleground of Florida has Trump at 47.2% to Biden’s 47%. Within that same poll, 54% said they were better off than they were four years ago, versus just 26% who say the opposite. An InsiderAdvantage poll conducted in the same period found Trump leading by 3%.
Comparing Trump’s current numbers with where he was at this point in 2016, we’re seeing some similar trends. The Real Clear Politics average over battleground states (Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin) is virtually the same as 2016. (Trump is currently doing 0.2% better than 2016’s spread.)
Many election models may also have errors if they assume the 2020 electorate will look exactly like 2016’s and do not factor in changes to voter registration. Some go so far as to compare the turnout in 2008 for President Obama.
However, even NBC News conceded that “Trump is winning the voter registration battle against Biden in key states.”
In Pennsylvania, Republicans have shrunk the traditional Democrat registration advantage by more than 130,000 new voters (according to the Pennsylvania Secretary of State’s office). Trump won Pennsylvania in 2016 by about 44,500 votes.
Eugene Tauber of The Morning Call reports that “A year ago the Democrats held about 9.5% registration lead with more than 4 million registrants compared to 3.2 million Republicans.” He adds, ”The Democratic lead as of October 5 is down to 8.1%, with almost 4.2 million Democrats and 3.5 million Republicans among the state’s 8.9 million registered voters.”
NBC News also note similar trends in the battlegrounds of Arizona and North Carolina.
With respect to the Sunshine State, NBC News reported that, “In Florida, Republicans added a net 195,652 registered voters between this March’s presidential primary and the end of August, while Democrats added 98,362 and other voters increased 69,848.”
Then there is the “on the ground” campaigns of the rivals. For example, the get-out-the-vote operations of both campaigns are vastly different this year. While the Trump campaign points to millions of voter contacts through proven methods like canvassing, the Biden campaign has moved nearly entirely online. Biden’s strategy has begun to worry some of his own staffers and Democratic officials.
This is particularly evident in Michigan, a state Trump narrowly won in 2016. A TIME reporter labeled it an “invisible digital campaign” and wrote,
“When I ask Biden campaign staffers and Democratic Party officials how many people they have on the ground in Michigan, one reply stuck out: ‘What do you mean by ‘on the ground?’”
Left-wing filmmaker Michael Moore said it is
“actually worse than Hillary. At least there was a ground game, even though she didn’t show up. There were Hillary offices in many towns, there were door-to-door campaigns.”
As has been said before, the only poll that truly matters is on Election Day. Your vote may make all the difference in a close race.
From the presidency, to the Senate, to the House and all the way down the ballot, you have opportunities to elect candidates who will stand up for unborn children and their mothers. And the stakes have never been higher.
For more information on voting and candidates, see www.nrlvictoryfund.org.