In a previous communication, I discussed the five-alarm fire ignited by an article in the New York Times.
The headline to Shane Goldmacher’s story, which ran on Sunday, read “Trump Leads in 5 Critical States as Voters Blast Biden, Times/Sienna Poll Finds.” This has dominated the discourse in Democratic circles since it ran.
Byron York described the key conclusion:
The story was based on a new survey in which voters in six key swing states — Georgia, Arizona, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Nevada — were asked whether they supported President Joe Biden or former President Donald Trump in a 2024 matchup. The result: In five of those states, all except Wisconsin, Trump led Biden.
The Washington Post provided a succinct and accurate representation of the disbelief and astonishment experienced by pro-abortion media outlets. The article presents a discussion between eight columnists on the topic of abortion. One might inquire as to the circumstances that have led to Trump’s electoral success.
In the wake of this disappointing outcome, former Obama advisor David Axelrod advised Biden to consider withdrawing from the 2024 race, suggesting that it would be prudent to do so.
“Only @JoeBiden can make this decision. If he continues to run, he will be the nominee of the Democratic Party. What he needs to decide is whether that is wise; whether it’s in HIS best interest or the country’s?” Axelrod asked in a thread on X.
In a recent article for Hot Air, David Strom presented a statistical analysis of the current political landscape. The New York Times poll of six swing states (all of which Biden won in the previous election) on Sunday yielded results that were particularly unfavorable to the Democratic candidate. While we are skeptical of any single poll, this one is consistent with other polls in terms of direction. Let these findings, which were previously considered implausible, be absorbed.
- Biden’s support among nonwhite voters dropped 33 points compared to 2020 results.
- The more diverse a state, the worse Biden does, The Times found.
- Trump’s support among Black voters popped to 22 points, which The Times called “unseen in presidential politics for a Republican in modern times.”
- Biden’s lead among Hispanics is in single digits in the six swing states polled (Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin). Democrats typically win among Hispanics by 30+ points.
- A CBS News/YouGov poll out Sunday had a similarly worrisome finding for Democrats: “Hispanic voters are much likelier to say their finances would improve under Trump than Mr. Biden. And most Black voters do not expect their finances to change if Mr. Biden wins again.”
It is unsurprising that some observers dismissed the findings. They argued that Obama had experienced a similar scare against Romney and rallied to win. However, Matt Lewis, writing in the Daily Beast, offered a different perspective.
Unfortunately, this comparison doesn’t hold up under scrutiny. Obama was a once-in-a-generation political talent; Biden is not. Obama also had the potential to excite and drive the turnout of young voters and minority voters. Biden does not.
What is more, Obama was running against Mitt Romney, a Republican he could villainize and define (see the “war on women,” “binders full of women,” “the 47 percent,” etc.) and whose personal comportment caused to him to be not the most effective political pugilist.
There are numerous additional topics that will be discussed in greater detail tomorrow.
Chelsea Garcia is a political writer with a special interest in international relations and social issues. Events surrounding the war in Ukraine and the war in Israel are a major focus for political journalists. But as a former local reporter, she is also interested in national politics.
Chelsea Garcia studied media, communication and political science in Texas, USA, and learned the journalistic trade during an internship at a daily newspaper. In addition to her political writing, she is pursuing a master's degree in multimedia and writing at Texas.
