By Dave Andrusko
Well today’s tale of woe for pro-abortion President Joe Biden comes from a number of similar stories topped off by “Why Biden’s Weakness Among Young Voters Should Be Taken Seriously,” written for the New York Times by Nate Cohn. As the Times’s chief political analyst, Cohn’s findings merit our attention.
As you would expect, Cohn’s findings are tough for “progressives” to swallow. Here are his opening paragraphs:
Could President Biden and Donald J. Trump really be locked in a close race among young voters — a group Democrats typically carry by double digits — as the recent Times/Siena polls suggest?
To many of our readers and others, it’s a little hard to believe — so hard to believe that it seems to them the polls are flat-out wrong.
And, of course, the poll he references–Times/Siena – –could be wrong. “I’ve thought our own polling might be wrong before, and I would be very apprehensive if it were just our poll out on a limb,” Cohn writes. “But this isn’t about one Times/Siena poll: Virtually every poll shows a close race between Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump among young voters.”
Indeed, “When dozens of polls all say the same thing, it’s worth taking the polling seriously,” Cohn writes. “It’s easy to remember that the polling can be wrong, but it can be easy to forget that the polling is usually in the ballpark.
Ok. But why? Cohn’s answer is…
I think it’s fairly straightforward to explain Mr. Biden’s weakness among young voters today, much as it was easy to explain Mrs. Clinton’s among white working-class voters in 2016. Young voters are by far the likeliest to say he’s just too old to be an effective president. Many are upset about his handling of the Israel-Hamas war. And all of this is against the backdrop of Mr. Biden’s longstanding weakness among young voters, who weren’t enthusiastic about him in 2020, and Mr. Trump’s gains among nonwhite voters, who are disproportionately young.
On Monday, we wrote about President Biden’s faltering numbers almost across the board, including such reliable Democrats as Blacks voters.
Biden is experiencing “a drop-off of support among Black voters, a generally loyal Democratic bloc,” Curtis Bunn wrote for NBC News. “Several polls have shown that at least 20% of Black voters say they’d support Trump, who is the current GOP front-runner, if the election were held now. That’s a significant increase from the 12% who voted for Trump in 2020.”
Perhaps it is the way polls are conducted—”partisan nonresponse bias, in which young Democrats simply aren’t answering their cellphones (99.8 percent of our young respondents were reached by cellphone).”
Nope. Cohn writes
In our polling, the problem for Mr. Biden isn’t too few young Democrats. It’s that many young Democrats don’t like him. Mr. Biden has just a 76-20 lead among young voters either registered as Democrats or who have previously voted in a Democratic primary. It’s just a 69-24 lead among young nonwhite Democrats. The dissent exists among self-identified Democrats, Democratic-leaners, Biden ’20 voters, and so on.
And so on. We get the point: that any poll is just a “snapshot”—that the election is a little over 11 months away, and things could change dramatically in ways that favor President Biden.
John Sexton, writing for HotAir ended his column this way:
Don’t forget that Biden got through the 2020 election out of sight a lot of the time thanks to COVID. He has no such excuse this time around. We’re going to be seeing a lot of him in the next year and if what we see is a frail old man who can’t remember which members of his party are alive or dead then Democrats have every reason to worry.