By Dave Andrusko
Even with the election 11 months away, I believe a very credible way of measuring where we are at with respect to the 2024 race for the presidency is by picking out a couple of representative headlines and quotations. And, trust me, this is not cherry-picking
A headline from USA Today: “Earth to Democrats: Biden presidency is a dumpster fire. How many warning signs do you need?”
Ingrid Jacques adds to her “dumpster fire” imagery: “Voters aren’t happy with the quality of life under President Biden. An NBC News survey found that the president’s approval rating has fallen to its lowest point – only 40% approve of his performance.”
Then there is this headline from Politico: “President Joe Biden’s poll numbers keep getting worse. Trump’s vote share in national polls is higher than at any time in the past year.”
Steven Shepard writes “November started with New York Times/Siena College polls showing Trump ahead in four of the six swing states, but more indicators of Biden’s electoral peril soon followed. The president’s standing in head-to-head matchups with Trump is falling: Among the latest surveys this month from 13 separate pollsters, Biden’s position is worse than their previous polls in all but two of them.
“And while polls suggest most of the movement comes from voters abandoning Biden — who might become undecided but not swing to supporting Trump — the Republican has also started to gain steam. Trump’s vote share in the national polling average is higher now than at any point in the past year.”
It’s deep concern over the president’s age that underlies so much of the skepticism. “Poll after poll has shown voters – even the majority of Democrats – are worried about Biden’s age and continued ability to carry out the country’s most important job. In September, a Wall Street Journal poll showed that 73% of voters said Biden is too old to run for reelection.”
Biden is also experiencing “a drop-off of support among Black voters, a generally loyal Democratic bloc. Several polls have shown that at least 20% of Black voters say they’d support Trump, who is the current GOP front-runner, if the election were held now. That’s a significant increase from the 12% who voted for Trump in 2020.”
How about younger people, 18-34? “Only a few polls show Biden with a lead among young voters that approaches his 2020 margins, but they are the exception, not the rule.”
One other comment from Ms. Jacques:
In the months ahead, Biden faces a grueling campaign schedule, not to mention the stresses of his day job. While he was able to do much of the 2020 campaign from his Delaware home due to COVID-19, the president won’t be able to get away with that this time.