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Behind the numbers: Two recent polls show President Biden tied or behind former President Trump

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The National Right to Life News Today concluded its broadcast on Monday with a brief but intriguing post entitled “Two polls find Biden/Trump neck and neck.

The headline encapsulated the most essential insights gleaned from Daily Caller’s Mary Lou Masters, who analyzed the findings of a Harvard CAPS/Harris survey and a USA Today/Suffolk University survey.

In essence, these two surveys, conducted almost 13 months before the 2024 elections, indicate that the two men are separated by a narrow margin in the USA Today/Suffolk University survey and that Trump is leading by 6 points in a three-way race with newly-independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. in the Harvard CAPS/Harris survey.

It is important to consider the details of the situation in greater depth. According to the USA Today survey,

It’s a tie: One year before the presidential election, Joe Biden and Donald Trump each command 37% of the vote in a new USA TODAY/Suffolk University Poll − with independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. costing Trump what would have been a narrow lead.

Kennedy, scion of the nation’s most revered Democratic family, won 13% of the vote in a hypothetical match-up, drawing voters who by 2-1 said they would otherwise support the probable Republican nominee.

It is noteworthy that the Harvard CAPS/Harris survey, which indicates a five-point lead for Trump at 46% to 41%, also reveals that independent Robert F. Kennedy is on par with Trump at 19%.

One of the most pivotal issues in any presidential election is the economy. In the Harvard CAPS/Harris survey, only one-third of respondents indicated that the U.S. economy is on the right track.

On Monday, a headline in the Washington Post read, “Biden team looks at buying more ads amid ongoing polling concerns.” The Biden campaign has already purchased a considerable quantity of advertisements.

Despite reservations expressed by some advisers, Biden approved the initial fall television and digital campaign. These advisers felt that the funds could be more effectively allocated for other priorities, such as accelerating the recruitment of staff or increasing cash reserves. Other Democrats have expressed skepticism about whether the optimistic tone of some Biden advertisements accurately reflects the economic realities of the electorate.

And this:

Others have expressed concerns over the “Bidenomics” message, which ties the sales pitch to a political brand that polls poorly on the economy, and the reliance of ads on macroeconomic indicators, like job growth and a declining inflation rate, that do not directly address the economic realities of many voters. They have argued that Biden and his top advisers are wasting money at a time when voters are not paying attention and not even convinced that Biden will be the Democratic nominee.

One other item. According to USA Today

“The president’s job approval rating is 40% approve, 56% disapprove.”

This is typical.

“The intensity of feeling is running against him: 13% say they ‘strongly approve,’ while three times that, 41%, say they ‘strongly disapprove.’”

This phenomenon is also typical and represents a significant risk factor. It is particularly concerning to observe such a pronounced enthusiasm gap.

More tomorrow.


Chelsea Garcia is a political writer with a special interest in international relations and social issues. Events surrounding the war in Ukraine and the war in Israel are a major focus for political journalists. But as a former local reporter, she is also interested in national politics.

Chelsea Garcia studied media, communication and political science in Texas, USA, and learned the journalistic trade during an internship at a daily newspaper. In addition to her political writing, she is pursuing a master's degree in multimedia and writing at Texas.

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