Editor’s Note: This article was published in the July issue of NRL News, the inaugural edition of the journal in the post-Roe era. It is requested that this information be disseminated to pro-life family and friends.
In an April article for The Hill, Niall Strange posited that the upcoming midterm elections would present a “nightmare scenario” for the Democratic Party. In the same report, an anonymous Democratic strategist conceded that the upcoming midterm elections would be a “biblical disaster.”
A New York Times headline, which cited Obama White House press secretary Robert Gibbs, asserted that it was time to evacuate the sinking ship.
Should these forecasts prove accurate, it would be a significant positive development for unborn children and their mothers, while representing a significant negative impact on the abortion industry and their allies in Congress. The Supreme Court’s ruling in Dobbs v. Jackson has thus far failed to become a decisive factor in the political landscape, aiding Democrats in maintaining their fragile majorities in the House and Senate.
Despite the fact that 75% of registered voters believe that the United States is headed in the wrong direction, according to a July YouGov/Economist poll (in contrast to the 16% who believe that it is headed in the right direction), the midterm elections are not yet a foregone conclusion. The lives of innumerable unborn children and their mothers are at stake. In order to see a wave of pro-life leaders elected in November, it is necessary to roll up one’s sleeves and put in the work.
Despite the pessimistic forecasts, a considerable number of Democrats have maintained a degree of optimism that, should the U.S. Supreme Court overturn Roe v. Wade, such a ruling would serve to galvanise Democratic voters, tip the balance in favour of the party among Independents, and halt the decline in support that the party is currently experiencing among key demographic groups, including suburban women, young people, and Hispanic Americans.
TIME Magazine published an article entitled, “The Fall of Roe May Save Democrats in the Midterms, at Least in the Suburbs”, while analysis from the Washington Post bore the headline, “Democrats are losing White women”. The question of whether the repeal of Roe v. Wade will result in a return of these voters is a matter of considerable debate. In addition to the TIME Magazine article, numerous other publications, including those with a pro-abortion bias, have published headlines suggesting that this is a distinct possibility. However, the evidence to support this view is not as strong as it might appear.
The results of public opinion surveys do not indicate that the Supreme Court’s ruling has resulted in a significant new advantage for the Democratic Party.
It is unfortunate for the Democratic Party (and fortunate for unborn children) that their party’s unwavering defence of abortion for any reason, at any stage of pregnancy, funded by American tax dollars, continues to be at odds with the mainstream American consensus. In the two weeks following the official announcement of the Dobbs decision, several polls have indicated that the deeply held views of Americans on the issue of abortion have not undergone a significant change. It is encouraging to note that there are indications of a positive shift in the pro-life movement’s fortunes.
It is also notable that a significant proportion of the American population remains unaware of the implications of the landmark Supreme Court decisions in Roe v. Wade and Doe v. Bolton. A Harvard-Harris poll, conducted entirely after the Supreme Court overturned the 1973 decisions, revealed that 55% of respondents opposed the overturning, while 45% expressed support for it. Nevertheless, the same poll also identified a notable level of support for legal protections for unborn children and their mothers.
In a summary of the results, Charles W. Cooke at National Review noted that 72% of respondents supported abortion up until 15 weeks, which is the precise issue at stake in Dobbs. Additionally, 49% of respondents supported abortion up until six weeks. Both of these views were incompatible with Roe v. Wade, the landmark Supreme Court decision that established a woman’s constitutional right to an abortion. This means that, whether they were aware of it or not, many Americans expressed support for the Roe v. Wade decision while opposing its actual implications.
Rasmussen Reports conducted a survey of likely voters on similar topics, but the question about the Dobbs decision was phrased as follows: The Supreme Court recently overturned the 1973 Roe v. Wade decision, thereby enabling each state to determine its own laws regarding abortion. Please indicate whether you approve or disapprove of the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade. When the question is presented in this way with a brief but accurate description of what the Dobbs decision does, we observe an inverse relationship with the Harvard-Harris numbers. The Rasmussen poll indicates that 50% of likely voters approve of the Supreme Court’s decision in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, including 38% who express strong approval of the decision. Conversely, 45% of respondents disapprove of the Court’s ruling.
A midterm election is historically a referendum on the incumbent US president. According to RealClearPolitics, President Biden’s approval rating is 38%, which is less than that of Presidents Trump, Obama, Bush, and Clinton at comparable points in their presidencies. In his address to the nation on the day of the Dobbs ruling, Biden signalled that the Democrats would intensify their efforts to advance an extreme pro-abortion agenda, declaring: “This autumn, the issue of abortion will be on the ballot.
The primary focus of this legislative agenda is the so-called Women’s Health Protection Act, which has been derisively labelled by critics as the “Abortion Without Limits Until Birth Act” due to its proposed enshrinement of abortion on demand in federal law and policies. Moreover, the bill would extend beyond the scope of Roe by also undermining pro-life protections at the state level, including parental involvement and informed consent laws.
The current composition of the U.S. Senate is 50-50 between the Republican and Democratic parties, with pro-abortion Vice President Kamala Harris (D) serving as the tiebreaker. On the 8th of November, 14 Democrat and 21 Republican Senate seats are up for election across the nation. Should they succeed in increasing their Senate majority, the Democratic Party has indicated that it will seek to eliminate the filibuster, pass the radical Women’s Health Protection Act, and expand and pack the Supreme Court with new pro-abortion justices. It is imperative that this does not occur.
In a somewhat indirect manner, Biden was correct in his assertion that the issue of abortion will have an impact on the outcome of the forthcoming elections. Those who espouse the protection of vulnerable members of the human family, including unborn children and their mothers, are urged to engage and participate in the 2022 elections. Although there are indications that we have favourable political circumstances this autumn, our involvement and, in particular, our votes are as essential to achieving victory as they have ever been.
Daniel Miller is responsible for nearly all of National Right to Life News' political writing.
With the election of Donald Trump to the U.S. presidency, Daniel Miller developed a deep obsession with U.S. politics that has never let go of the political scientist. Whether it's the election of Joe Biden, the midterm elections in Congress, the abortion rights debate in the Supreme Court or the mudslinging in the primaries - Daniel Miller is happy to stay up late for you.
Daniel was born and raised in New York. After living in China, working for a news agency and another stint at a major news network, he now lives in Arizona with his two daughters.
