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The recently leaked opinion on abortion does not appear to have provided a significant boost to the Biden and Democratic campaigns

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In approximately six to seven weeks, the Supreme Court will issue its much-anticipated decision in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization. Despite being a preliminary draft, Judge Samuel Alito’s opinion, which was leaked to the press, did call for the reversal of Roe v. Wade.

Prior to Politico’s revelation, abortion supporters had already begun to prepare the public for the potential consequences of abortion. However, the blockbuster May 2nd story, written by Josh Gerstein and Alexander Ward, intensified their rhetoric, prompting them to adopt more apocalyptic language.

While their language would have been sufficient to create a sense of urgency regardless, the early polling results indicated that it had not yet shifted public opinion in their favor. This is corroborated by NBC News.

A new national NBC News poll has revealed that support for abortion rights has reached a record high, with nearly two-thirds of Americans opposing the U.S. Supreme Court overturning Roe v. Wade. This poll was conducted after the leak of a draft opinion that would strike down the constitutional right to abortion.

Please direct your attention to the following two paragraphs, which require careful reading:

But enthusiasm from Democratic voters has shot up, with 61% expressing a high level of interest ahead of this year’s midterms, an eleven-point jump from March, according to NBC. But 69% of Republicans expressed high interest in the midterms, NBC reported, a notable advantage over Democrats. 

“It is true that Democratic interest is up, but we can’t lose sight that Republicans still enjoy an advantage that augurs well for election success,” Republican pollster Bill McInturff of Public Opinion Strategies, who conducted the survey with, told NBC.

Did Justice Alito’s draft opinion provide a boost to President Joe Biden, who is pro-abortion? To answer this question, it is necessary to examine the circumstances surrounding the opinion. On the day that the opinion was released, Ed Morrissey of Hot Air wrote:

Politico leaked the draft on the evening of May 2, exactly two weeks ago, and this poll was conducted between May 5-7 among 1,000 adults. That was right at the peak of media outrage and Joe Biden’s fulminating over the radical court and the need to defend abortion on demand at all stages of pregnancy.

The result?

Morrissey notes that Biden’s job approval rating has declined to 39% among all adults, representing the lowest point in his presidency in this series.

On personal approval, Biden’s also crashing. He’s down to 37/51 on that measure, the first time that a majority views him personally as negative. In April 2021, Biden got a 50/36 on that question, but Kamala Harris is doing even worse. Respondents give Harris a 31/48 favorability score, down from her inaugural peak of 46/41. Only 17% view Biden “very positive[ly],” and only 14% say the same for Harris. And that’s after the SCOTUS leak, too.

What’s more

A noteworthy observation regarding the impact of the Supreme Court leak on favorability ratings is that Republicans fare better than Democrats in this regard. According to a poll conducted by NBC News, the Republican favorability rating stands at 35/46, while the Democratic rating is 31/50. This discrepancy challenges the conventional narrative of the media’s narrative freak-out.

The following day will see the publication of several articles concerning the Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization case.


Daniel Miller is responsible for nearly all of National Right to Life News' political writing.

With the election of Donald Trump to the U.S. presidency, Daniel Miller developed a deep obsession with U.S. politics that has never let go of the political scientist. Whether it's the election of Joe Biden, the midterm elections in Congress, the abortion rights debate in the Supreme Court or the mudslinging in the primaries - Daniel Miller is happy to stay up late for you.

Daniel was born and raised in New York. After living in China, working for a news agency and another stint at a major news network, he now lives in Arizona with his two daughters.

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