Trump and Clinton tied, but Clinton losing battle of enthusiasm and honesty/trustworthiness

By Dave Andrusko

enthusiasmpolling3reIn six days the most topsy turvy election of my lifetime will end, culminating in the election of our 45th President. Naturally, we will continue to post daily updates on the electoral lay of the land.

Here is an overview of the latest numbers–not all, but the most important. I’ll then fill in details.

#1. Pro-life Donald Trump and pro-abortion Hillary Clinton are tied in the latest Washington Post/ABC News survey: 46% each. There will be more about this poll, in tandem with the results of the same poll from yesterday. And for the first time more responders said they believe Trump is honest and trustworthy than Clinton-by a margin of eight points.

#2. Likewise they are tied in the IBD/TIPP presidential tracking poll at 44%.

#3. Trump has open a six point lead in the daily LA Times/USC Tracking survey–48% to 42%.

#4. In the all important (for Trump, at least) state of North Carolina, for the first time in a while there is a poll that shows Trump ahead, in this case by seven points, no less.

So, speaking of the latest two Washington Post/ABC News surveys, there are two very important numbers within the overall survey. First, Trump has an advantage of 6 points (52% to 46%) among supporters who say they are “very enthusiastic” about their candidate.

Something important that I missed yesterday is that Trump has a whopping 11 point lead (50% to 39%) among those who say they are planning to vote on Election Day. This is partially offset, but only partially, by what appears to be an advantage for Mrs. Clinton among those who have already voted.

As noted, on the issue of honesty and trustworthiness, Trump now leads Clinton, 46% to 38% among likely voters. Clinton’s score, according to ABC News, “has dropped by 7 points in this poll, produced for ABC by Langer Research Associates.”

Compared to early September results, Clinton has lost 14 points among independents in being seen as more honest than Trump, and 13 points among moderates — two groups less firmly anchored by partisan or ideological preferences. That said, she’s also lost 10 points among Democrats on this measure.

What about the “gender gap?” Explaining the IBD/TIPP poll, John Merline writes that among men, Trump leads 50% to 38%. Among women, his numbers have grown from 34% to 39%. Clinton is supported by 50% of women.

This is an overall number that does not mention that overwhelmingly African American women, like African American men, support Clinton. This is important because the New York Times and other publications are reporting much diminished interest in this community for Clinton.

Specifically, here is the Times’ lead to “Black Turnout Falls in Early Voting, Boding Ill for Hillary Clinton” which ran Tuesday:

African-Americans are failing to vote at the robust levels they did four years ago in several states that could help decide the presidential election, creating a vexing problem for Hillary Clinton as she clings to a deteriorating lead over Donald J. Trump with Election Day just a week away.

As tens of millions of Americans cast ballots in what will be the largest-ever mobilization of early voters in a presidential election, the numbers have started to point toward a slump that many Democrats feared might materialize without the nation’s first black president on the ticket.

Final comment about North Carolina. Almost all scenarios for a Trump win include the absolute necessity of carrying North Carolina.

For weeks, Clinton has been ahead, albeit by tiny margins recently. But a new poll by SurveyUSA for WRAL TV finds Trump with 51% and Clinton with 44%. According to Matthew Burns

Almost a third of respondents in the WRAL News poll ranked trustworthiness as the most important consideration in voting for president. Positions on issues were rated most important by 40 percent, while experience and character were far behind at 17 and 8 percent, respectively.

Of those ranking trustworthiness most important, 83 percent favor Trump.

He also wins among those most concerned about issues, 52 to 43 percent.

Stay tuned!