By Dave Andrusko
The latest survey from the Marquette University Law School, released yesterday, cuts against the conventional wisdom that the overturning of Roe v. Wade would hurt Republican candidates, who are overwhelmingly pro-life, and benefit Democrats, whose passion to extend and expand abortion is unlimited.
The headline to the poll is wordy and slightly awkward but is a compact summary of the survey’s finding: “New Marquette Law School Poll national survey finds little change in partisan divisions and motivations about voting following Supreme Court abortion decision; those favoring Roe’s overturning are more motivated to vote in November.”
How did they arrive at this conclusion? The Marquette Law School Poll took national surveys in May—before the Supreme Court handed down its decision– and July—after Dobbs was delivered. As described by Charles Franklin, the findings from two months apart were fascinating:
The July results show that Republicans have slightly increased their advantage over Democrats in enthusiasm and projected turnout, compared to May, as shown in Table 2. In July, the percentage of Republicans very enthusiastic to vote rose 8 percentage points, while enthusiasm rose 3 percentage points among Democrats. Similarly, the percentage saying they are certain to vote in November rose 5 percentage points among Republicans but 2 percentage points among Democrats.
The enthusiasm gap between the parties is a substantial 18-percentage-point Republican advantage, while the certainty of voting shows a smaller 5-point Republican edge.
Specifically, how enthusiastic are supporters and opponents of the Dobbs decision?
There is also little change in enthusiasm or certainty of voting based on whether the respondent favors or opposes the Supreme Court decision to overturn Roe v. Wade, as shown in Table 3. Among either those in favor or those opposed to overturning Roe, there was no change between May and July in the percentage who are very enthusiastic about voting. There were a very small increase in certainty of voting for those in favor of overturning Roe and a slight decline in certainty to vote for those opposed to overturning Roe.
Leaving aside the change: By either measure, enthusiasm or certainty of voting, those who favor the decision to overturn Roe are more motivated to vote in the fall elections. [Underlining added.]
Ed Morrissey had a very interesting take on the result. “Looking through the rest of the results, it’s remarkable how little has actually changed after Dobbs, politically speaking. Attitudes on abortion haven’t changed at all, which shouldn’t surprise too many people. Attitudes on this policy only change over long periods of time, and two months is far too short,” Morrissey wrote.
The “most significant shift in the policy was still within the MoE [Margin of Error], a three-point shift in favor of a 15-week ban, which went from 50/49 in early May to 53/46 this month.”