By Dave Andrusko
For the last post of the week (as I often do), a few thoughts about President Trump’s approval rating and what is known as the “generic ballot“ where pollsters ask people which party they would support in a congressional election without tying the question to specific candidates.
Why? The November mid-term elections are coming up and we will be told insistently that all is lost for pro-life Republican candidates and the occupant of the White House. What follows is simply an update in which we eliminate the hostile spin.
#1. President Trump’s approval numbers are in the low-to-mid 40s. This is significant for two reasons.
The latest Reuters/Ipsos poll has him at 45%. You may remember that back in May when they found President Trump’s approval at 48%, Reuters/Ipsos were convinced it was an “outlier.” What to do? Reuters/Ipsos, “in the interest of transparency,” announced “we will not be announcing the start of a new trend until we have more data to validate this pattern.” In English, nothing until the numbers come down. So 45% was a very good number!
(Gallup’s is much worse, but that’s Gallup and Trump for you.)
For comparison purposes at a comparable point in his presidency, pro-abortion President Barack Obama had the same exact approval rating and the same disapproval (52%) as does President Trump. At the risk of stating the superabundantly obvious, President Trump’s press coverage is as hostile as President Obama’s was adoring.
The generic ballot has been, is, and probably will be up until the end all over the place. The Democrats’ advantage was as high as 16 points back in March.
But the last three polls show the Democrats up by only 2 points, 3 points, and a tie.
Which proves only what I mentioned two paragraphs ago. This number is volatile, depending to a degree on relative enthusiasm.
I reference this not just because it’s obvious but because the whole point of so much coverage of Republicans in general, the President in particular is to depress turnout for pro-life and/or conservative candidates.
See “Understanding what’s behind the ceaseless attempts to discredit single-issue pro-lifers,” which ran yesterday, for more.