Closing thoughts on Elections 2016

By Dave Andrusko

nov2016frontcoverI am writing this just before noon on Election Day. Here are two last-minute thoughts I’d like to share. I trust you have voted or will before the day is done.

First, over the past few election cycles, the IBD/TIPP survey has been the best predictor of the outcome. In its final numbers, pro-life Donald Trump is ahead of pro-abortion Hillary Clinton by two points–45% to 43%.

“As we complete the final days of the tracking poll, we see both Republicans and independents with relatively greater enthusiasm compared to Democrats. The registration advantage Democrats typically have will likely be neutralized by increased enthusiasm by Republicans, which is similar to 2004, when the voters split 37% Democrats and 37% Republican on Election Day. When it comes to candidate support, party-line vote will likely cancel each other,” said Raghavan Mayur, President of TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence, which conducts the IBD/TIPP poll. “We also expect independent turnout to be robust and significantly higher than in recent elections, and Trump has an 8-point advantage over Clinton among these voters.”

According to John Merline,

“The poll shows Clinton doing better among women (44% to 40%), minorities (64% to 13%), urban voters (56% to 25%), the nonreligious (55% to 22%), and union households (48% to 41%).

Trump does better among men (46% to 38%), whites (51% to 34%), investors (48% to 42%), rural voters (58% to 29%) and those who describe themselves as working class (43% to 42%) or lower-class households (41% to 30%).

Trump also does better among independents (39% to 31%), with Johnson capturing a strong 16% of this group’s support.

Second, as NRL News Today has written ad infinitum, all polls are based on assumptions, most notably about turnout and how particular demographic groups will vote. If either is off by just a point or two in key states, all bets are off.

To that end, one of the primary questions is if an uptick in Hispanic voters will offset would will likely be the inevitable downswing in the number of African-American voters, now that Barack Obama is not on the ballot.

But the other intriguing question is whether Donald Trump will do better than Mitt Romney in the African-American community. In the for-what-it’s-worth category, there are polls that suggest he may do considerably better.

For example, in what might prove to be the pivotal state of Pennsylvania, last Friday Harper polling published the results of a survey of 506 Pennsylvania voters which showed Trump has the support of 18.46% of African-Americans.

In Michigan a poll taken last week of 1,150 likely voters for Fox 2 over two nights showed Trump with 14% support and 19% support, respectively.

To repeat, if you haven’t voted yet, be sure to get to your polling place in plenty of time.