By Dave Andrusko
As most of you know, my family is on vacation, so I am only checking in every other day to update our readers. Lots of very interesting developments since Tuesday on the presidential front.
There are three fundamental dynamics that shape the contest between Republican Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton, the poster girl not only for the Planned Parenthoods and NARALs but also for the most extreme elements of the international abortion industry.
This is a change election; Clinton has a nearly 25-year track record which has culminated with an electorate that does not trust her or believe she is honest; and because of his own miscalculations and unprecedented media hostility, it is difficult for at least some Trump supporters to admit to pollsters they support him. The size of this unknown (or “silent”) Trump vote will not be known until November 8.
Here is a quick update, starting with the most positive news for Trump and ending with surveys in two states that show him still behind but closing.
#1. Using a combination of national telephone calls and an online survey, Rasmussen Reports tells us that Clinton’s 4 point advantage from last week has disappeared. When Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Green are included, Trump leads 40% to 39%. Both Green and Johnson are certified on a majority of state ballots.
#2. The Los Angeles Times daily poll (which is conducted much differently than other polls) shows Trump ahead 45.0% to 42.4%. By contrast, a Fox News poll found that in a four-way race, Clinton leads Trump 41% to 39%.
#3. Wisconsin is one of those intriguing states Trump may need to thread the electoral needle and win the presidency. Two very recent polls show dramatic changes in Trump’s fortunes. The Marquette University Law School poll finds Clinton up 5 points—42-% to 37% (and three points among those who say they are certain to vote]–while the Monmouth University poll also has Clinton up 5 points, 43% to 38%.
Good news, to be sure. Especially so when you consider that in a Marquette poll that covered August 4-7, Trump was down a whopping 15 points in a head-to-head match, and 13 points in a four-way contest.
Two other polls worth mentioning.
#4. Clinton’s favorability numbers hit record lows in the latest Washington Post/ABC News poll. Her 41% favaorable versus 56% unfavorable is the worst in her quarter century in the national limelight. Trump’s is almost very lower: 35% favorable to 63% unfavorable.
However if you look only at registered voters, the numbers are almost exactly the same: 38% favorable/59% unfavorable for Clinton; 37% favorable/60% unfavorable for Trump. And
#5. Winning Pennsylvania is key in one winning scenario for Trump. “The August 2016 Franklin & Marshall College Poll of Pennsylvania shows that Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump 47% to 40% among likely voters, down from the 49% to 38% lead she held immediately after the Democratic convention.”