By Dave Andrusko
It really DOES seem like every day a poll comes out showing that President Obama’s support among key constituencies is falling dramatically. The latest is among Hispanics—down from 75% in December 2012 to 52% in November.
But while the headline of the report from Gallup (rightly) talks about the precipitous decline among Hispanics, the analysis itself from Jeffrey M. Jones shows the President’s falling fortunes among many, many demographics.
Jones’ analysis comes on the heels of huge drop off among young people and white women.
As we posted Wednesday, 54% of Millennials (those 18-29) disapprove of the President’s job performance. (For good measure 57% of millennials disapprove of Obamacare.)
On Thursday, we posted results from a poll taken by the Kaiser Family Foundation. That poll found that a total of 50% of college-educated white women either have a “very unfavorable” view of ObamaCare (40%) or “somewhat unfavorable” (10%). Among white women without a college education, a total of 63% have a “very unfavorable” (50%) view of the law while an additional 13% view ObamaCare “somewhat unfavorably.” Only one in six (16%) have a favorable view of the law.
Here’s how Jones explains the fall-off among Hispanics—“Hispanics’ approval has dropped 23 points over the last 12 months, the most among major subgroups, and nearly twice the national average.” Bad news for the President, no getting around that, although Jones does try to cushion the fall by arguing that support among Hispanics has long been volatile.
Then Jones tells the reader that Obama’s “approval rating also showed above-average declines among low-income Americans, nonwhites, moderates, and moderates who identify with or lean toward the Democratic Party.”
The graph which we’ve attached, has the numbers. Here are two additional thoughts, based on the graphic.
First, the core constituencies for the Democratic Party show not just declines but serious decline: low-income Americans [64% to 46%], nonwhites [82% to 65%], moderates [61% to 45%], moderates who identify with or lean toward the Democratic Party [89% to 73%], the not married [62% to 47%], and those with a high school education or less [54% to 39%]
Second, although not emphasized by Jones, the President’s approval would not be well under 50% if his support hadn’t also taken a hit among other groups not particularly in his corner. For example, among Independents with no party leaning, Obama’s job approval has fallen from 41% to 28%. To name just one more, the approval of those who attend church weekly has dropped from 45% to 34%.
A neutral conclusion would be that in light of the public’s lack of support in Obama’s honesty and competence, it will be very difficult for the President to win the members of these subgroups back.
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