By Dave Andrusko
One week to go. Seven days from now the nation will be casting votes to decide who will lead the greatest nation on the face of the planet. I’m hoping/praying that you will participate in the democratic process November 6.
I don’t know if this is actually going to pan out this way, but the talk is that today’s NPR/Democracy Corps poll will be the last complete national poll for a while, because of the dislocations (and tragically deaths) caused by Hurricane Sandy. However, what we heard yesterday out of Gallup, when combined with the results of NPR/Democracy Corps poll, are both intriguing and very encouraging.
Gallup has found that 15% of registered voters have already cast ballots. But talk about counter-conventional wisdom [Democrats were supposed to have a gigantic early advantage], pro-life Mitt Romney leads pro-abortion Barack Obama 52% to 46%.
“And unlike the snapshot national polls that we obsess over each day (many of which are based upon samples of 800-1,200 respondents), this survey has a massive sample size of 3,312 registered voters,” writes Guy Benson. “Of those who say they’ve already voted nationwide, the D/R/I [Democratic/Republican/Independent] is 33/37/29, or R+4.”
The candidates “are tied among those who plan to vote before election day, and Romney holds a 6% advantage with those who say they’ll vote on election day,” writes The Hill’s Christian Heinze. “In other words, those are good numbers for Romney.”’
One should not read anything definitive into this, but clearly the trend is very encouraging.
Getting back to the NPR/Democracy Corps poll which finds Romney up one over Obama, 49% to 48%, but behind four points in the “battleground states,” 50% to 46%.
Now, to be sure, a five point differential is possible between the nation as a whole versus selected states (“battleground” states). But, as always, the devil is in the details, or in this case, the sample.
“So what gives?” asks Ed Morrissey. “The national sample has a D+4 tilt, with a D/R/I of 35/31/34. The battleground sample, however, has a D+9 tilt at 40/31/27. In what reality does the Democratic advantage increase in battleground states to a margin wider than the 2008 turnout advantage? I’m guessing only in NPR/Carville World.”
As has been the case for a long time, Independents are breaking Romney’s way. He has a sizable 12 point advantage—51% to 39%.”Independents are harshly critical of Obama’s job performance, with a 42/54 approval rating that consists of only 17% strongly approving and 44% strongly disapproving,” Morrissey writes. “They’re even tougher on his economic performance at 39/60.”
But the most stunning figure of all is that Romney’s favorability rating is 51% versus 45% unfavorable, better than Obama’s 51% favorable, 48% unfavorable. This in spite of hundreds of millions of dollars of attack ads launched against Mr. Romney, magnified in impact thanks to the close cooperation of much of the “mainstream media.”
As of this morning, Rasmussen finds Romney up two points over Obama 49% to 47%. Romney enjoys a 51% to 46% advantage in Gallup’s survey while the Washington Post/ABC News poll has Romney up one, 49% to 48%. Yesterday’s Pew Research Center for the People & the Press had the two men tied at 47%.