By Dave Andrusko
We’re consumed right now with completing National Right to Life News’ Special Election Issue, so you probably see this post just an hour or two before tonight’s first of the Presidential debates. I’ll be brief. What do we know from the most recent polling data?
As we knew they would, the advantage President Obama holds over Mitt Romney is shrinking. Three recent polls had the margin within the margin of error and today’s National Journal Congressional Poll has the two men deadlocked at 47% among likely voters. The Journal poll was conducted September 27-30.
Romney is behind among women 51% to 44% and ahead among men, 50% to 42%. That “gender gap” among women is much smaller—and much more realistic—than others which have Mr. Romney behind by double digits.
Note that AGAIN Mr. Romney is ahead among Independents, this time by 8 points, 49% to 41%. How can he still be behind? Because the poll essentially predicts the same turnout profile as 2008. But that flies in the face of everything that we’ve read up to and including greater enthusiasm among Republicans.
For example there is the NBC/Wall Street Journal poll. According to Mark Murray, NBC News Senior Political Editor,
“Obama edges Romney by three points among likely voters, 49 percent to 46 percent, which is within the survey’s margin of error. Obama’s lead was five points, 50 percent to 45 percent, in the NBC/WSJ poll released two weeks ago, following the political conventions…
“[A]mong voters expressing the highest interest in the election, Obama and Romney are essentially tied (49 percent to 48 percent).
“And two key pillars of Obama’s political coalition – Latinos and young voters – are much less interested in the election than they were in 2008.”
Rasmussen predicts a +3 advantage in turnout for Democrats come November 6. The National Journal poll gives Democrats a +7 advantage, yet Obama and Romney are tied at 47%!
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