By Dave Andrusko
A little less than eleven months out from the 2024 presidential election and the pace of covering hypothetical matchups is in full swing. For now the pendulum has swung in favor of pro-life former president Donald Trump over pro-abortion President Joe Biden.
The latest poll comes from the Wall Street Journal. The Journal’s Aaron Zitner sums up the key findings:
WASHINGTON—President Biden’s political standing is at its weakest point of his presidency, a new Wall Street Journal poll finds, with voters giving him his lowest job-performance marks and favoring Donald Trump for the first time in a head-to-head test of the likely 2024 presidential matchup.
Biden lags behind Trump by 4 percentage points, 47% to 43%, on a hypothetical ballot with only those two candidates. Trump’s lead expands to 6 points, 37% to 31%, when five potential third-party and independent candidates are added to the mix. They take a combined 17% support, with Democrat-turned-independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. drawing the most, at 8%.
Unhappiness with Biden is pervasive in the new survey, though much of it appears among Democratic-leaning groups who might still back the president on Election Day.
And here is the key
Only 23% of voters say Biden’s policies have helped them personally, while 53% say they have been hurt by the president’s agenda. By contrast, about half of voters say Trump’s policies when he was president helped them personally, more than the 37% who say they were hurt.
CNN’s Zachary B. Wolf broke out what ultimately matters most: Who would carry the 270 electoral votes needed to be the next President. The headline reads “Joe Biden has an electoral math problem to solve.” Wolf writes
Forget the national polls that show the country has soured on President Joe Biden, and consider the Electoral College with less than 11 months until Election Day 2024.
Former President Donald Trump would need to flip three states Biden won in 2020 to complete his political resurrection and retake the White House – and a new set of CNN battleground state polls out Monday suggests that if the election were held today, Trump is most of the way there.
CNN looked at the Battleground states, like Michigan and Georgia, the ones that were hotly contested in 2020. “Interestingly, Trump’s lead in Georgia and Michigan is built on people who don’t always take part in the political process,” Wolf writes.
He quotes CNN’s Jennifer Agiesta and Ariel Edwards-Levy:
Trump’s margin over Biden in the hypothetical matchup is significantly boosted by support from voters who say they did not cast a ballot in 2020, with these voters breaking in Trump’s favor by 26 points in Georgia and 40 points in Michigan.
Those who report having voted in 2020 say they broke for Biden over Trump in that election, but as of now, they tilt in Trump’s favor for 2024 in both states, with Biden holding on to fewer of his 2020 backers than does Trump.
Yikes. Those in Georgia and Michigan, who did not vote in the last election, favor Mr. Trump by a whopping 26 points and 40 points, respectively. Trump is not ahead by these astonishing margins among those who did vote in Georgia and Michigan in 2020 but he is in the lead, nonetheless.