By Dave Andrusko
Before I dig in to the great news this morning, a few headlines:
*GOP Has Political Winds at Their Back in 2022
*Top Democrats Question Their Party’s Strategy as Midterm Worries Grow.
* One week out, Democrats have little reason for optimism about Congress
* NYT Data Analyst: Here’s Why We’re Nervous Our Polls Will Be Wrong Again
* In Virginia Midterm Battlegrounds, Republican Candidates Borrow From Youngkin’s Approach
* “Support for Democrats among women ‘collapses’: WSJ”
The problem with gauging polls is that they often conflict and, in any event, shift from week to week. But when you have less than a week before the midterm elections, they pretty much will agree and there is little time for large changes. By the way, the sense of panic among the major media, the abortion movement’s best friend, is palpable.
Hotair’s David Strom says of the Wall Street Journal poll, “It is impossible to overstate how disastrous this poll was for Democrats, and what it may portend.” He writes
Here’s the monster swimming just below the surface though: the Democrats are losing women, despite their relentless focus on abortion. Even women who prioritize abortion as a voting issue are swinging away from Democrats. Combined with the (so far) modest drifting away of the black vote Democrats are in danger of losing the twin pillars of support that have kept them competitive and earned them all their victories in recent decades.
The GOP has seen a shift in its favor among several voter groups, including Latino voters and women, and particularly white suburban women. That group, which the pollsters said makes up 20% of the electorate, shifted 26 percentage points away from Democrats since the Journal’s August poll and now favors the GOP by 15 percentage points.
White suburban women shifted 26% away from Democrats since August? That is huge, and could devastate Democrats even if everybody else didn’t move a bit.
Of course, there are plenty of targets to blame for what may be a Democrat debacle, starting with party strategists and the “consultant class.” The New York Times’s Lisa Lerer, Katie Glueck, and Reid J. Epstein write
Top Democratic officials, lawmakers and strategists are openly second-guessing their party’s campaign pitch and tactics, reflecting a growing sense that Democrats have failed to coalesce around one effective message with enough time to stave off major losses in the House and possibly decisive defeats in the tightly contested Senate.
The criticisms by Democrats in the final days of the midterm elections signal mounting anxiety as Republicans hammer away with attacks over the economy and public safety. For weeks, Democrats have offered a scattershot case of their own, accusing their opponents of wanting to gut abortion rights, shred the social safety net and shake the foundations of American democracy.
Yet as the country struggles with high gas prices, record inflation and economic uncertainty, some Democrats now acknowledge that their kitchen-sink approach may be lacking.
There has been a gradual awakening that placing much of their emphasis—message and dollars—on abortion has failed abysmally. Ro Khanna is a pro-abortion Congressman from California. He told the Times
that Mr. Biden also understood the urgency of those issues, questioned whether the “consultant class” had grasped the potency of that message in time, amid an intense focus on abortion rights and on protecting democracy. Both of those are important, Mr. Khanna said, but prioritizing them should not come at the expense of pocketbook matters. …
Democrats have spent nearly $320 million on ads focused on abortion rights, more than 10 times as much as the $31 million they have spent on spots about inflation, according to data from AdImpact, a media tracking firm. They have spent nearly $140 million on crime ads. [Underlining mine.]
One other thought for today, this from Gallup’s Jeffrey M. Jones and Lydia Saad
WASHINGTON, D.C. — The political environment for the 2022 midterm elections should work to the benefit of the Republican Party, with all national mood indicators similar to, if not worse than, what they have been in other years when the incumbent party fared poorly in midterms.
Heading into Election Day, 40% of Americans approve of the job Joe Biden is doing as president, 17% are satisfied with the way things are going in the U.S., 49% describe the health of the economy as poor (compared with 14% saying it is excellent or good), and 21% approve of the job the Democratically led Congress is doing.
Current ratings of the U.S. economy and national satisfaction are the lowest Gallup has measured at the time of a midterm election over the life of these polling trends, starting in 1994 and 1982, respectively. Congressional and presidential job approval are near their historical low marks.
Things are looking down, down, down for Democrats and up, up, up for defenders of unborn babies.