Politics

Are Democrats crying wolf or do they really fear a “surge” in Republican turnout on November 8?

By Dave Andrusko

You have to take what a Democratic group that coordinates get-out-the-vote efforts says with a pound and a half of salt. Their job, after all, is to raise money in order to rally the troops and one way America Votes does that is to predict a massive Republican turnout.

John Ward tells us that Yahoo News was “provided” a copy of the presentation made to donors [].

The headline neatly summarizes the pitch: “Democrats say they expect a pro-Republican ‘MAGA surge’ in fall elections.” [MAGA is “Make America Great Again.”)

These Democratic consultants are telling anyone who will listen that “The ‘MAGA surge is real.’” True (they argue) the party is competitive in races they didn’t expect to be, but “GOP turnout will be very high.”

The consultants are making the same argument David Byler did: the level of Republican turnout in primaries.

Ward writes, “Democrats expect this MAGA surge largely because turnout in Republican primaries so far this year has been sky-high, just as it was in 2021.” Some examples:

In Pennsylvania, for example, 1.3 million people cast ballots in the May 17 GOP primary, nearly double the total of 730,857 in 2018. That’s an 85% increase.

In Georgia on May 24, Republicans saw an even bigger surge, a 98% increase from the 2018 GOP primary. Turnout was 1.2 million in the Georgia Republican contest, up from 607,874 four years prior.

This pattern held through a number of contests. GOP primary turnout was up 42% in Nevada in June, and in August primaries it was up 66%.

They did find some good news for Democrats:

A recent Morning Consult/Politico survey of 2,005 registered voters found that 61% of Democrats said they were “extremely” or “very” enthusiastic about “voting in the midterm elections,” compared to 57% of Republicans.

But…

But the kind of intensity demonstrated in this year’s primaries among Republicans was the kind of energy that translated into a big win for the GOP in the 2021 Virginia elections, even though Democrats had huge turnout as well. The GOP were victorious there for only the second time in the last 20 years, won the lieutenant governor and attorney general races, and recaptured control of the House in the state Legislature.

And Republicans did all that despite the fact that more Democrats went to the polls in 2021 than in 2017. And in the 2017 election, Democrats had completely smashed turnout records from previous years.

Of course the “MAGA” acronym is thrown out to “rile” Democratic donors, as Devin O’Malley, a Republican who worked with Glenn Youngkin who won the race for governor of Virginia.

A very interesting article. Please take a few minutes to peruse it.

Recent Posts

Happy Thanksgiving!

Oh give thanks to the LORD, for He is good; for His steadfast love endures… Read More

4 days ago

2020 Abortion Numbers from U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Show a Decline

WASHINGTON — On Wednesday, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) released its… Read More

5 days ago

President Reagan’s 1986 Thanksgiving Proclamation ‘affirming our gratitude for the many blessings bestowed upon this land and its people’

By Dave Andrusko Editor’s note. Tomorrow is Thanksgiving. Over the years we have posted many… Read More

5 days ago

Simple Reminders about the Value of Adoption

By Micaiah Bilger Editor’s note. November is Adoption Awareness Month. Micaiah Bilger was Education Director… Read More

5 days ago

North Dakota AG says District Judge erred in issuing a preliminary injunction against its trigger law

By Dave Andrusko The North Dakota Supreme Court has scheduled oral arguments next week to… Read More

5 days ago

Here’s abortionist Willie Parker’s incoherent argument against human equality

By Paul Stark Minnesota Citizens Concerned for Life “Abortion kills a human being,” said Willie… Read More

5 days ago