By Dave Andrusko
A bevy of good news for pro-lifers. Let’s get right to it.
The Trafalgar group has done some truly excellent work. FiveThirtyEight gives it an A-.
The Trafalgar group poll, released today, shows a strong pro-life result: 38% responded that abortion should be illegal except in the case of the life of the mother , or rape, incest, or just life of mother. Another 19.7% says abortion should be legal in the first trimester but only “until a fetal heartbeat can be detected,” which is around six weeks. That’s a total of 56.7%!
Only 11.6% believe abortion should be legal up until the moment of birth.
Meanwhile, Rasmussen surveyed 1,200 registered voters from May 5-7, asking “respondents for their thoughts on the contentious issue of abortion.”
Ryan Foley reports “The Rasmussen poll revealed that 65% of Americans want ‘voters and their elected representatives’ to ‘decide the laws governing abortion,’ which they would have the opportunity to do in the absence of Roe.”
Note the poll was taken after “Politico published a leaked draft majority opinion in the case of Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health, where a majority of Supreme Court justices seemed inclined to uphold Mississippi’s 15-week abortion ban while declaring that Roe ‘must be overruled.’”
Switching to politics, a story this morning begins
House Democrats may be in worse political peril than they’ve let on publicly.
During a Thursday luncheon last week with DCCC Chair Sean Patrick Maloney, Frontline Democrats – the party’s most endangered lawmakers – were told that, in battleground districts, the generic Republican is beating the generic Democrat, 47-39, according to lawmakers, multiple party officials and the DCCC.
This is a stunning margin and highlights the incredibly perilous position Democrats find themselves in.
But the outlook may be even more grim for Democrats. “The DCCC poll results may still underestimate the problem,” says Hotair’s Ed Morrissey. ”First, the most recent Monmouth poll puts the GOP up seven points overall, not just in battleground districts. RCP’s generic-ballot aggregate average has Dems down 3.5 points, and that has looked stable for months now.”
The second question, Morrissey wrote, “is whether the DCCC has accurately defined the universe of ‘frontline House Democrats.’ Given these numbers, the number of at-risk seats has to have expanded, especially as Joe Biden’s numbers remain mired near his floor and inflation rages all around. Perhaps the DCCC has accounted for this already, but I’d bet that they’re at least in some form of denial as to just how bad their situation actually is.”
Oh, by the way, President Biden’s average approval number is 42%, with some polls finding him in the 30s.