By Dave Andrusko.
As we have for the last week and a half, each day as we approach November 3rd, we’ll be taking a look back at what we wrote at a comparable point in time in 2016—in this case, October 27, 12 days from the November 8th General Election.
The headline for the piece I wrote read, “Clinton’s advantage cut in half in both Washington Post and Fox News polls” and it began
Few if any non-partisans put stock in the ABC News poll of a few days ago that showed pro-abortion Hillary Clinton ahead of pro-life Donald Trump by 12 points. That’s why the two latest polls showing Clinton up by 6 points (Washington Post/ABC News) and 3 points (Fox News) restored some balance as we approach the November 8 elections.
If you are following our day-to-day updates, you appreciate the similarities to 2016 and the differences.
For one thing, pro-abortion Democrats keep insisting they “learned their lesson” from what was (from their perspective) a debacle. Hillary just didn’t campaign hard enough. So that lesson was learned and is reflected in practice, right?
No! Biden and his campaign are so convinced the American people pine for him and that so many do not wish Mr. Trump to have a second term that the best strategy is to hide (literally, not figuratively) for almost the entire campaign season and then in the two debates slander President Trump with slurs already debunked many times over but which the moderator will not bother to ask Biden to prove.
This misses many truths. Here are just two.
First, Biden is an awful candidate. He’s run for President repeatedly, and he’s no better at it now than he was in the 1980s. But people do want to see him.
Everyone understands he is fragile but will his almost complete absence be reflected in the way undecideds vote? (No matter how few people say they have their minds made up, it almost proves true that there are many last minute switches. )
Second, it radically and fundamentally underestimates the loyalty of the Trump base and his appeal to voters who cannot stand what they see as the typical “politician.” President Trump is one of a kind which is one major reason his support among Latinos and Blacks will far surpass what the typical Republican receives—and why savvier Democrats are worried.
To return to the comparison 12 days out from the 2016 General Election, the polls are again off, an over-confident Joe Biden thinks he is so far ahead he can be invisible/not-campaign, and in a couple of weeks we will see the usual pollsters and pundits again scratch their heads and ask, “How did we not see this coming?”