By Dave Andrusko
In the face of virtually every poll showing Hillary Clinton up by 3-6 points, I wrote the following on November 7, 2016, the day before the election:
“But the most accurate poll over the last several election cycles has been IBD/TIPP…”
And, in fact, they proved to be one of only two polls to predict Trump’s victory.
As they explain, ”IBD/TIPP Presidential Tracking Poll data reflects a survey of 800-1,000 likely voters conducted over the prior five days.” In other words, it’s a rolling poll.
On October 12th Biden’s advantage was 8.5 points. On October it was 5 points. Today the margin is 2.5 points: 48.5% to 46%. (Support for fringe candidates and “not sure” make up the remaining 5.5 percent).
I fully understand, because we write about it all the time, they were and are measuring national numbers, not “battleground states.” But Clinton then, and fellow pro-abortionist Joe Biden now, have the advantage in both categories.
Other data found in their report is also very useful. Such as
President Trump has a clear advantage when it comes to voters’ intensity of support. Among those who intend to vote for Trump, 75% back him strongly, vs. 69% among intended Biden voters. …
Despite Biden’s 2020 election poll lead, just 39% of voters expect him to win, while 38% think Trump will prevail. Meanwhile, 49% think most of their neighbors will vote for Trump, and just 36% think their neighbors will mostly back Biden. The big difference comes from rural areas, where 74% say their neighbors back Trump.
As is our habit, let me offer some headlines and additional background.
“The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Wednesday shows that 49% of Likely U.S. Voters approve of President Trump’s job performance. Fifty percent (50%) disapprove”—Rasmussen Reports.
“At a fundraiser tonight, @KamalaHarris played trivia and answered questions from the cast of The Avengers. And with that, the Democratic VP nominee has now taken more questions from cast of The Avengers than from the traveling press covering her campaign”—ABC News’ Jonathan Karl [@jonkarl].
“Peter D. Greenberger, who formerly held ‘executive revenue and partnership positions at both Google and Twitter,’ wrote a column proclaiming that ‘Social media platforms should silence the president until the winner of the election is clear’”—Alexander Hall
*“Trump’s support among young Black voters (18 to 44) has jumped from around 10 percent in 2016 to 21 percent in UCLA Nationscape’s polling. …. “Trump is attracting 35 percent of Hispanic voters under age 45, up from the 22 percent who backed him four years ago”— Geoffrey Skelley and Anna Wiederkehr
“This year, a majority are excited to get behind Trump, rather than being primarily motivated by a distaste for his opponent. Among white evangelical Trump supporters, most characterize their vote in 2020 as “for Trump” (57%) and not “against Joe Biden” (20%), according to new Pew Research Center survey breakouts provided to Christianity Today”—Kate Shellnutt, Christianity Today
The rising support for President Trump among Latinos will potentially play a pivotal role in states such as Florida. As Geoffrey Skelley and Anna Wiederkehr observed
Most notably, even though Trump stands to gain with nonwhite voters across the board, his support seems to have risen the most among Hispanic voters with a four-year college degree. We don’t want to overstate the influence of this group — they make up about 2 percent of the population age 25 and older nationwide — but they are disproportionately concentrated in one especially vital swing state: Florida. In fact, 24 percent of Hispanic Floridians have a college degree, compared to 16 percent of Hispanic adults nationally.4 So even if Trump isn’t doing as well among older white voters, his gains among Hispanic voters, including highly educated ones, could offer a path to victory in the Sunshine State.
This growing support could also be essential to victory in Arizona, another battleground state.
Under the “Who you gonna believe, the media or your lying eyes?” category, President Trump has visited Pennsylvania over and over and over again. The crowds he attracts are nothing short of gigantic. But we’re to believe his numbers are going down in the Keystone State–that Biden’s chances are winning are 87%, according to not-a-Trump-fan Nate Silver.
That’s simply not believable. As we discussed yesterday, even MSNBC reported that Republicans enjoyed a nearly 2-1 advantage in voter registration in Pennsylvania since June.
One other thought. There is a full-court press among anti-Trump Catholic and some anti-Trump Evangelical media outlets to persuade people of faith that it is perfectly acceptable to vote for the stridently pro-abortion team of Joe Biden and Sen. Kamala Harris. But as even Christianity Today concedes, evangelicals not only remain staunchly in President Trump’s corner but (even more than they did in 2016) because they support him rather than oppose his competitor.
Stay tuned. We’ll be reporting all the way up to and through the historic November 3 General Election.