Categories: Politics

43 days to go until November 3 General Election and what do we know?

By Dave Andrusko

A great deal has changed since Friday with the passing of Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg. We look at that separately at “President Trump says he will announce a nomination to the Supreme Court by Friday or Saturday.” Here are five nuggets  which we will separate from the rock to find the gold.

*”The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Monday shows that 51% of Likely U.S. Voters approve of President Trump’s job performance. Forty-eight percent (48%) disapprove.”Rasmussen Reports

“Latest State Polls: PA: Biden +2 | NC: Biden +1 | FL: Biden +2 | TX: Trump +2Real Clear Politics, September 21

“High earners are more likely to be “shy” Trump voters. A new survey finds that people in households making $75,000 or more seem to play down their support for the president when polled by phone”Bloomberg News

 “Fact check: Biden falsely claims Trump campaign only asked him for Supreme Court list after Ruth Bader Ginsburg died”CNN

And 

Poll: Most Young Americans Prefer Biden, But Trump Backers Are More Enthusiastic”—NPR

Let’s begin by combining the first and the fifth items. Rasmussen’s numbers are for the nation as a whole, not the pivotal “battleground states” (see below). But these figures have hovered around 50% for sometime, a most encouraging development.

It’s not surprising that younger people [18-29] favor the Democrat. What else is new?

But Juana Summers adds some interesting details from the survey

Sixty percent of likely voters under the age of 30 say they will vote for Biden, compared with 27% for Trump, according to a poll from the Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics out Monday. But 56% of likely voters who support the president are “very enthusiastic” about voting for him, compared with 35% of likely voters who back the Democratic nominee when asked about their enthusiasm.

That is a colossal enthusiasm gap.

Apropos the Real Clear Politics numbers (which are aggregates), the closer we get to November 3, the more hysterical will be the anti-Trump commentary and the more emphasis there will be on Biden’s lead in competitive states. But the question is not whether Biden is ahead but the margin—which is shrinking—and the trend lines—which are positive for the pro-life incumbent President. Again—to repeat the obvious—you will inevitably read stories  headlined, “Biden ahead by [some huge margin] over Trump in [state “A.”] Pay no attention.

“High earners are more likely to be ‘shy’ Trump voters” cuts against every narrative we’ve read. It is only us “deplorables” who are reluctant to tell pollsters how we truly feel.

But Peter Coy’s story begins

President Trump has often said that polls underestimate his support. When it comes to higher-income voters and college graduates, at least, that may well be true. A new study by Morning Consult, a survey researcher, finds that people in those two groups are less likely to state support for Trump when surveyed by phone than when answering questions online, where they presumably feel more anonymous.

Why?

College grads and higher-income people who support Trump may conceal their preferences  because liking Trump is perceived in some circles as socially undesirable, says [Morning Consult Chief Research Officer Kyle] Dropp. “All studies of social desirability bias have suggested that those effects are larger among a more elite set,” Dropp says. “Those who are more likely to overreport that they will vote, and that they watch TV news, are the elites.”

Then there’s Joe Biden’s blatant misrepresentation, still another example of Biden doing precisely what he accuses President Trump of: “rewriting history.”

Everyone who follows the election knows that President Trump added names to his list of potential Supreme Court nominees and challenged Biden to post his own list, which Biden refused to do. Here’s the full paragraphs from the CNN “Fact Checking “story. Biden said

“We can’t keep rewriting history, scrambling norms, ignoring our cherished system of checks and balances. That includes this whole business of releasing a list of potential nominees that I would put forward. They’re now saying, after they — after Ruth Bader Ginsburg passed away, they said, ‘Biden should release his list.’ It’s no wonder the Trump campaign asked that I release the list only after she passed away. It’s a game for them. It’s a play to gin up emotions and anger.”

Under “Facts First,” CNN’s Daniel Dale writes

This is just wrong. The Trump campaign and Trump himself had repeatedly said prior to Ginsburg’s death that Biden should release a list of prospective Supreme Court nominees.

43 days until the election, eight days until the first Presidential debate.

Stay tuned.

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