What, if anything, can we conclude four days out from the Iowa caucuses?

By Dave Andrusko

 Granted, the 2020 presidential election is still 277 days away, but the Iowa caucuses are next Monday. Political junkies are always on high alert but even the general public will soon take more than a passing interest come next week.

For example, pro-abortion Socialist Bernie Sanders and pro-abortion former Vice President Joe Biden are supposedly leading in the polls. Assuming one of those two prevail (which is not a given), the larger story will be what if pro-abortion Sen. Elizabeth Warren finishes fourth (or worse) in Iowa? 

Complicating the calculations, Democrats employ a “viability test.” People are asked to switch candidates if their preferred choice doesn’t hit a threshold (often15%), meaning there are all kinds of alliances that can be made. If you’ve ever been a part of one of these caucuses (which I was a number of times years ago in Minnesota),  you know they can and often are really, truly chaotic.

Two quick points. First, President Trump’s popularity continues to ascend. His numbers are still “under water” (more opposition than support), but they are moving in the right direction—toward the mid-to-high 40s. In our polarized political culture (not to mention the impact of an unceasing media onslaught), that is near-miraculous.

Second, there are the stunning results of a new Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research poll released today. Here are the lead paragraphs of the story written for the AP by Nicholas Riccardi and Emily Swanson.

When it comes to the 2020 presidential election, Democrats are nervous wrecks and Republican excitement has grown.

That’s according to a new poll by The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research as Americans look ahead to a high-stakes election that is 10 months away but still very much top of mind. While emotions could change in the coming months, the findings give Democrats one more worry to add to the list: Will anxiety or enthusiasm be a bigger motivator come November?

On the verge of the first votes being cast in a primary contest with no clear leader , 66% of Democrats report anxiety about the election, compared with 46% of Republicans. Democrats are also more likely to feel frustration. Republicans, meanwhile, are more likely than Democrats to declare excitement about the race, and the share of enthusiastic Republicans appears to be rising.

Why? Lots of reasons, as you would expect, starting with the aforementioned “no clear leader” among the many Democrats running for president.

Moreover, “Behind an intense desire to oust President Donald Trump, Democrats often describe deep uncertainty about what sort of candidate has the best chance and whether the party will be able to win the votes,” Riccardi and Swanson write. “ There’s also hard division over policy and whispers about a contested convention. It can all feel a bit too much for some.”

You can read the entire story for yourself here

Message for us?

Pro-lifers have a strong president whose base is solidly behind him. Democrats sense their weakness, which (of course) when it comes to their attacks on the President, explains just about everything. If you think they’ve already thrown everything they can at Mr. Trump, think again.

And, again,  Election Day is 277 days away. A great deal could and may well change next Monday. For sure, there will many ups and downs between now and November 3.

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