One day out from midterms, the reasons for optimism

By Dave Andrusko

We’ll probably post some election-related material tomorrow, but because the results will come creeping in, today is likely when we’ll say the most. Just by way of notice, we have five other items we hope you read and pass along.

But, before anything else, if you haven’t already voted, be sure to do so tomorrow.

So, what to say?

*There’s the famous/infamous generic ballot. As you recall, that is the result when you ask people which party — not which candidate — they would vote for if the election were held that day.

Pollsters have been telling us unceasingly that Democrats are enjoying this massive lead — CNN made up another poll over the weekend with a +13 point advantage for Democrats — and that this means curtains for Republicans, aka a “Blue Wave.”

In fact, as Ed Morrissey over at HotAir wrote today:

What happens if you threw a wave party, and only a low tide showed up? The last midterm poll from Politico/Morning Consult shows Republicans have cut the Democratic lead in the national generic ballot by more than half. A week ago, that poll series showed a D+8 lead, but in the final iteration it’s down to just three points.

The supposed large-scale advantage was bogus from the get-go, as we have discussed many times. It’s a national average, for heaven’s sake. Places such as New York and California where Democrats enjoy a gigantic advantage over Republicans radically distort the figure.

If the Democrats generic ballot lead is down to 3 points, that is very, very bad news for them and very, very good news for pro-life Republicans.

The same principal holds for individual races. It’s that specific race, not a generalized number, that counts. There are a flock of Senate and even more House races that appear to be closer than white on rice. Which is why

*President Trump’s all-out campaign tour could play a pivotal role. Even in a midterm election which is already attracting a tremendous number of people, some will not be motivated to make it to the polls. However if they hear about a Trump rally, or talk with fired up friends who attended a rally, let alone attend a Trump rally themselves, they easily be inspired to cast that all-important ballot.

As Morrissey put it:

Republicans have kept pace in early voting, though, keeping a slight lead over Democrats the whole way through. Making Trump the center of these elections might end up creating a presidential-year turnout model, which seems more likely to benefit Republicans than a midterm-under-a-GOP-president model would. In less than two days, we’ll see which party won the Trump Referendum bet, but it’s no slam dunk at this point for either.

*Is there evidence in the Politico/Morning Consult survey that points in the opposite direction? Sure. Consider this:

Despite the close overall result, the poll shows Democrats coalescing behind their party more than Republicans. Nearly nine-in-10 Democratic voters, 89 percent, say they will vote for the Democratic candidate for Congress in their district. By comparison, just 77 percent of GOP voters say they will vote for the Republican candidate.

Democrats enjoy a 12 point advantage (89% to 77%)? For the record, I do not believe that is even remotely accurate.

May or may not be true for Democrats, but the dramatically lower figure is just not plausible for Republicans. They have been “coming home” for months and at the eleventh hour-plus  suddenly they are having second thoughts? Doesn’t pass the straight face test.

Final thought. We’ve talked about lots of other factors that will affect the outcome, including most importantly (a)turnout in key demographic groups and (b) what is so often forgotten. Not every race is “nationalized.” Many will be decided by local issues.

Tomorrow will be historic. Please be sure you were part of making it an historically pro-life day, not for us, but for unborn babies.