By Dave Andrusko
As we discussed yesterday, Dublin, Ireland is five hours ahead of Eastern Standard Time. So when polls opened at 7, it was 2 in the morning here in Washington, DC. A Yes vote on the abortion referendum would rid the Constitution of the 8th Amendment and authorize Parliament to legislate on abortion—or No—to retain the provision which guarantees equal rights to unborn babies and their mothers.
What do we know so far, according to media reports?
· “Strong” turnout, which (predictably) pro-abortion media outlets such as the Irish Times tell us that “Analysts say a high turnout, particularly in urban areas, is likely to favour a Yes vote.”
· Pro-life politician Peadar Tóibín, a member Sinn Féin which as a party supports a Yes vote, called on the Irish people to vote No. He tweeted this morning, “The irony that the referendum on abortion is being held on International Missing Children’s Day will not be lost on many Irish people. Those on the margins of society suffer most from abortion. Vote No to abortion on demand.”
· Opinion polls have constantly shown greater support for a Yes vote, although everyone concedes the margin has consistently diminished. But the Save the Eighth coalition argues, in fact, that the No vote is ahead. They wrote
Since the beginning of the campaign, we have commissioned tracking polls to monitor the views of voters on the referendum. We have also commissioned an independent analysis of all recent opinion polls, including the latest of our own tracking polls, which projects the outcome of the referendum based on the likely turnout and the support for Yes and No within each age group.
That analysis predicts the following result for today’s referendum.
The No vote, 51%, the Yes vote, 49%.