In turnabout, Republicans assume lead in Generic Ballot over Democrats

Ahead by 7 points after trailing by 16 points

By Dave Andrusko

Here’s our latest update on the shifting 2018 electoral fortunes of Democrats, who are almost entirely pro-abortion, and Republicans, almost all of whom are pro-life. Bearing in mind the important caveat that it’s only May, the most recent numbers are stunning.

About an hour ago (okay, March) Democrats enjoyed a whopping 16 point advantage in the “generic ballot.” This is where pollsters ask people which party they would support in a congressional election without naming specific candidates.

Yesterday, according to Guy Benson, 45% of likely voters in a CBS News poll preferred Democrats to win this year while 43% favor Republicans. (This is a slightly different way of asking the same question.)

But when asking the straight generic question (“would you vote for a Republican or a Democrat in the district where you live”), a Reuters poll reported yesterday found

38.1% preferred Republican
36.7% preferred Democrats
15.4% didn’t know/ refused to answer

However, today, according to Benson, another Reuters poll found

40.7% preferred Republicans
34.5% preferred Democrats
14.9% didn’t know/ refused to answer

Two qualifiers, according to Benson, one in each direction. First, those who support Democrats had a lead in expressing a “high level of interest,” according to a new NBC News/WSJ poll –66% to 49%.

But second, on Monday, “The Democratic National Committee (DNC) posted its worst April fundraising numbers since 2006, raising less than $8 million in the month of April,” according to NTK Network.

By contrast the Republican National Committee raised $13 million in April, according to its FEC filings.

We will keep you posted.