By Dave Andrusko
If there’s anything we can say for certain–besides that pro-life Donald Trump is closing fast on pro-abortion Hillary Clinton–it is that whatever we say today could easily be upended by developments later in the evening. Here’s the latest as of Thursday afternoon, five days before Election Day.
First and foremost, as we have posted a hundred times, any poll, no matter how scrupulously fair, is based on a projected turnout model. If fewer Clinton supporters vote on November 8 than the model suggests, or more Trump supporters than anticipated fulfill their civic duty (or both), all predictions could be as out of date as yesterday’s newspaper.
What did we learn in the last 20 hours or so? The latest surveys in some of “swing states,” one or more of which Trump must carry, are trending in his direction.
I do understand that if you average a bunch of polls, Clinton remains ahead, but as we approach the finish line it’s those last surveys that carry the most weight.
To wit (to name just a few):
My state of Virginia. Four weeks ago, the Hampton University poll had Clinton up by a whopping 12 points. Now the same poll has Trump ahead by three.
Then there is New Hampshire. A new WBUR/MassINC poll shows Trump leading by 2 points in a head-to-head with Clinton and one point in a four-way race that includes the Libertarian Party candidate and the Green Party candidate.
On top of that a Suffolk University poll out today shows them tied at 42% in a four-way race.
There are other states that may be longer shots. But…
- A University of Colorado poll finds Trump and Clinton tied at 39%.
- A Susquehanna Polling and Search survey reveals that Clinton’s lead over Trump is down to two points (45% to 43%) in Pennsylvania.
- In Michigan, a Fox News poll finds Clinton’s link has shrunk to three points–47% to 44%.
- In Nevada CNN says Trump is ahead by six points–49% to 43%
What is the take away from the latest Washington Post/ABC News poll?
According to a CBS News story about the poll, Clinton is up 45% to 42%. ABC News notes that Trump leads among those who are “most enthusiastic” (by 5 points).
What about the gender gap? Trump leads among men, 49% to 36%. Clinton’s advantage among women is 50% to 38%.
But, of course, there is a reason the Clinton campaign is so heavily working African-American communities. Not only does Clinton enjoy a large advantage among Black men, she has a huge advantage among Black women.
So Trump’s “gender gap” among women is wholly a function of African-American women support for Mrs. Clinton.
Trump and Clinton are virtually exactly tied among White women–43% for Trump and 42% for Clinton.
Stay tuned. And be sure to read the digital edition of the November issue of National Right to Life News which will go online Friday afternoon.