Ahead by four in one poll in Florida, down by two in another
By Dave Andrusko
A new Bloomberg Politics poll shows that NRLC-supported Donald Trump has assumed a 5 point lead in the all-important state of Ohio. Pro-abortion Hillary Clinton had been ahead (or tied) in every poll since late April until last week when the Quinnipiac poll found Trump ahead by one point.
Meanwhile two new polls in the equally critical state of Florida show split results. Trump is up 4 in one, Clinton ahead by 2 in another. *
Many observers have pointed out that the polling sample in the Bloomberg Ohio poll that showed Trump up 5 is closer to the electorate of 2014 than the presidential year of 2012. So why might the sample showing more Republicans than Democrats be valid?
There are various explanations why more Republicans may show up November 8, 2016 than did in 2012. Or, put another way, the electorate could be different both because there will be more Republicans who show up and fewer Democrats.
The Trump campaign, from the get-go, has insisted it will draw in voters who sat out the 2012 election between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney. Indeed, it has argued it will attract voters who have not voted in a very long time.
But the most obvious explanation would be an enthusiasm gap. MSNBC’s Chuck Todd, a former Democratic operative, painted a dire picture for Clinton, beginning with Nevada.
His point was a simple one. The margin Clinton enjoys over Trump among Latinos (35%) is much smaller than Obama’s over Romney (47%). Ditto for young people (18-34) where Clinton is ahead by 28 percentage points whereas Obama carried young people in Nevada by 38 percentage points.
By the way, nationally only 26% of young people have a positive view of Clinton. Todd’s unassailable point was that Clinton was “underperforming” with key components of the Obama coalition.
There was other very positive news for Trump today. His lead in the daily Los Angeles Times/USC Dornsife national tracking poll has grown to 5 points.
More importantly, the Denver Post reported Trump was ahead in Colorado. Check the headline: “Donald Trump sensing momentum as Colorado polls appear to narrow: Hillary Clinton enduring campaign stumbles as Republicans finally establish a foothold in Colorado”:
“Polls appear to narrow” when you are ahead for the first time by two points (43% to 41%), according to a Reuters/Ipsos survey?!
I guess you could put it that way. Clinton for much of 2016 enjoyed double-digit leads.
Final thought–speaking of Nevada–according to Monmouth University, “Trump Overtakes Clinton”
Among Silver State voters likely to participate in November’s presidential election, 44% currently support Trump and 42% back Clinton. Another 8% intend to vote for Libertarian Gary Johnson and 3% say they will choose Nevada’s unique “none of these candidates” ballot option.
What explains the shift from Clinton to Trump? Not a change among Democrats or Republicans, we read:
Independents have shifted, however, now giving Trump a clear 43% to 29% advantage over Clinton, with 17% supporting Johnson. Two months ago, the independent vote was divided at 39% for Trump, 37% for Clinton, and 10% for Johnson.
*(This is independent of the negative impact of Mrs. Clinton’s health scare/ her campaign’s failure to be forthright and her ugly assaults on “half” of the Trump supporters, although it is likely the improvements in multiple states reflected the impact of those self-inflicted wounds.)