By Dave Andrusko
We’re back from our vacation and I’m eager to use today and Friday to catch up on many topics of great importance to pro-lifers.
As a preview, on Friday we will posting about Libertarian Party presidential candidate Gary Johnson’s position on abortion and give you an update of the worst (or best) ten illustrations of Hillary Clinton’s all-hands- on-deck support of abortion on demand at home and abroad, paid for by the American taxpayer.
But I’d like to begin today by updating our readers on what the polls are telling us about the race between Clinton and NRLC-supported Donald Trump. Obviously, surveys are showing that Clinton is sinking and Trump is gradually rising, but there’s more to it than just that.
(I will save the most encouraging news from this week’s CNN poll for last.)
By way of preface/warning, last week the Washington Post carried an Associated Press story, the gist of which was that Hillary Clinton might effectively have won the race before November 8. Pardon?
Hope Yen tells us that in some of the states targeted by both campaign, half the votes, or more, will be cast in early-voting. And, she continues, since the party affiliation of people who cast ballots will be known in “many states,” from that you can extrapolate how Clinton and Trump are faring. This is just another iteration of the tiresome story that the election is over and Hillary Clinton ought to be focusing on her choices for her cabinet.
My point? We will read many, many more such stories (e.g., that Trump has “hit his ceiling”–40%). Don’t be fooled for even a second. This race will go down to the wire.
Here is a rundown of what’s happened since we’ve been away.
#1. Mr. Trump and Gov. Mike Pence, his running mate, will be speaking on Friday and Saturday, respectively, at the 11th annual pro-life Values Voter Summit. Good news.
#2. Three weeks ago, the Monmouth poll found Clinton up by nine points over Trump when Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Green were included, in the pivotal state of Florida. However a recent PPP poll (PPP is run by partisan Democrats) has Trump up by one point. And while the favorability numbers of both Trump and Clinton have been miserable, now her unfavorables are one point higher than Trump’s (53% to 52%) in Florida. (She is behind Trump in this category in the CNN poll as well.)
Moreover, as Hotair.com wrote, “Nineteen percent of Democrats view Trump favorably. Just four percent of Republicans give Hillary thumbs up. What does that mean in terms of presidential preference? In the four-way race, PPP sees Trump drawing 15 percent of the Democratic vote(!) versus five percent of Republicans crossing over for Hillary.”
#3. An IBD poll from last Friday has the two tied at 39% while a new Franklin Pierce University/Boston Herald poll has Clinton up 3 points–44% to 41%.
#4. This week’s CNN/ORC poll showed Trump up 45% to 43% over Clinton when Johnson and Green are included. MSNBC went gaga over the fact that there were more self-identified Republicans than Democrats in the sample and “recalculated” the results to show Clinton is ahead.
But remember this surveyed LIKELY voters, which reflects motivation and enthusiasm. As CNN wrote, “A majority of Clinton’s supporters say they’re less excited about voting this year than usual (55%) while most of Trump’s backers say they’re more excited this time around (56%).”
And, Jennifer Agiesta adds, “Trump has his largest edge of the campaign as the more honest and trustworthy of the two major candidates (50% say he is more honest and trustworthy vs. just 35% choosing Clinton) and as the stronger leader, 50% to 42%.”
Moreover, by a 56% to 41% margin, those surveyed thought Trump would better handle the economy.
One other poll very much worth discussing: the daily USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times Daybreak poll which, while it ebbs and flows, has consistently shown Trump doing better than other major surveys. Why might that be?
A number of methodological reasons and because, as the Los Angeles Times’ David Lauter notes, “Among that absolutely certain [to vote] group, Trump leads 51% to 45%, the poll found.”
Another index of enthusiasm, which, even more than money, is the mother’s milk of politics.
And, I almost forgot (without getting too deep into the weeds), for months and months, more Democrats were behind Clinton than Republicans were supporting Trump. That gap is closing quickly.