By Dave Andrusko
As Donald Trump prepares to deliver his presidential acceptance speech tonight at the conclusion of the Republican National Convention, the latest series of polls has good news for both Trump and pro-abortion Hillary Clinton.
Clinton had trailed Trump by 7 points in last week’s Rasmussen poll–44% to 37%. That deficit is now a single digit–43% to 42%.
Likewise, just as Rasmussen’s results have generally shown Trump’s numbers much better than other pollsters, so, too, has Reuters/Ipsos polls tended to show Clinton much further ahead than other surveys
For example, last week, Clinton was ahead by a whopping 15 points, according to Reuters/Ipsos. This week Clinton is ahead by 7 points–43% to 36%.
(The Daily USC Dornsife/ LA Times Presidential Election Poll shows them tied: 42.8% for Trump to 42.6% for Clinton.)
So what explains Trump’s improvement, according to Reuters’ Chris Kahn?
Trump’s rise appeared partly fueled by a decline in the number of voters who remained on the sidelines. The percentage of voters who supported neither candidate dropped to 12 percent in the July 15-19 poll from 15 percent in the July 10-14 poll.
Interesting, Kahn’s story manages to miss that there are two other candidates running, one of whom is getting near double digit support in some polls.
When Libertarian Gary Johnson (7%) and Green Party candidate Jill Green (3%) are included, Clinton’s advantage is down to four points: 39% to 35%.
One other point. According to Gallup’s June survey, 28% of the electorate is Republican, 31% Democrat, and 39% independent–a three point advantage for Democrats.
But the “political identity” of those included in the Reuters/Ipsos is dramatically different.
Only 14% identify as Independent, as compared to 39% in the Gallup survey.
40% of those surveyed identify as Democrats, compared to 31% in Gallup, and 31% identify as Republican, as compared to 28% in Gallup–a nine point advantage for Democrats.
All of a sudden the 7 point advantage for Clinton doesn’t quite so secure.