By Dave Andrusko
Editor’s note. If you are not currently receiving NRL News Today in your inbox, you can sign up at www.nrlc.org/join_our_mailing_list.htm
Good afternoon! Are you excited about tomorrow? I know you are both because of the magnitude of the stakes and the closing rush for Gov. Romney which the “mainstream media” is determined to excuse away.
First the top lines and then some thoughts on Ohio and Pennsylvania.
Rasmussen Reports has pro-life Romney ahead of pro-abortion President Barack Obama 49% to 48%.
The Washington Post/ABC News poll has Obama up one, 49% to 48%.
Pew Research has the President up by three, 48% to 45%.
CNN has the two men tied at 49%, arguable the most misleading poll of the season. When the election is over, CNN will have some ‘splaining” to do.
How can the race be tied if Romney enjoys not a 5 or 10 or 15 point advantage among Independents, but a 22 advantage!
Same old, same old, only worse! A whopping 41% of those surveyed identified themselves as Democrats, to 30% Republicans, to 29% Independents. Put another way if Romney led among Independents by 40 points, Obama could still be “ahead” if the poll is sufficiently short of Republicans and overstocked with Democrats. Amazing, utterly amazing.
In a word, the race is (pardon the cliché) too close to call.
I remember four years back when I read some really grasping-at-straws stories purporting to show why Sen. McCain, who was way behind in the polls, could defeat Obama.
By contrast, this year Romney and Obama are deadlocked in the national polls and the momentum is—media portraits to the contrary notwithstanding—clearly with Romney. There is every reason to believe he can and will win. What are the signs that Romney is in solid shape one day out?
As we talked about in “However belatedly, a story recognizes the power of pro-life voters to carry Mitt Romney to victory,” pro-lifers are working overtime. They/we understand the damage Obama has wrought in four years and are keenly aware how much more he could do in a second term.
The Romney rallies in Ohio and Pennsylvania have been as energetic and as positive as they have been huge and pumped up. Unlike Ohio, there will be very little early voting in Pennsylvania. Traditionally, Democrats win early balloting, Republicans prevail among those who vote the day of the election. Every poll shows Pennsylvania tightening by the day.
Here’s Jim Geraghty’s summary as of this morning:
“Overall, Team Romney is extremely confident for several reasons: 1) a 5-7 point advantage on voter intensity, 2) a double digit lead among independents, 3) in D+9 polls, Obama can’t break 50 percent, 4) GOP matching or exceeding Obama in voter contacts (440,000 made in OH over the weekend).”
And while talked about it’s not been fully appreciated that Romney has pulled even with Obama on the issue of favorable/unfavorable impressions. Not so long ago, Obama was ahead by a mile. People like to vote for people they like.
By the way, some polls are supposedly showing Obama and Romney essentially tied among Independents, which may be an even bigger scandal because it is so transparently false. Compounding the error is that we are supposed to believe (according to some polls) that not only has the President pulled even among Independents but that enthusiasm among Democrats is almost as widespread as among Republicans. Neither is marginally plausible.
One other thought about the CNN poll. The problem is not just that the likely voter sample is widely skewed in favor of Democrats; what else is new? But the good news is the disappearance of the “gender gap.”
Obama enjoyed a gender gap advantage of 14 points in 2008 over McCain: 13 among women, one among men.
Today Romney wins men by 9 points in the CNN poll, Obama wins women by 8 points=a one point net gender gap advantage for Romney.
Here’s Ed Morrissey’s summary
“So we are expected to believe that since 2008, (a) Obama has lost thirty points in the gap with independents [from +8 to minus 22] , (b) Obama has lost fifteen points in the gender gap, and (c) Obama is still just four points below his 2008 share of the electorate? Only in a world where 41% of the voters will be Democrats and only 30% Republicans, and that world won’t be what we see tomorrow.”
Be sure to vote and be sure that all your pro-life friends and family do as well.