Ripple effect of Denver debate still being felt

By Dave Andrusko
http://twitter.com/daveha

Pro-abortion Joe Biden and Pro-life Paul Ryan

By the time you might have a chance to read this final National Right to Life News Today post for Thursday, the debate between pro-abortion Joe Biden and pro-life Paul Ryan may have already started. Either way and regardless of the outcome (as spun by the media), here are a few background points that place the only vice-presidential debate in the context of the three presidential debates, only one of which has been completed.

Noemie Emery, a contributing editor to the Weekly Standard, wrote this about President Obama’s performance in Denver:

“Obama had seen that his friends would protect him, and so he believed he could mail it in Wednesday, but this was the venue that could not be spun. No filter. No edits. No choosing what to put in or leave out. No shaping of the story. Just the story itself, rolled out in real time, sans narration, before 70 million American voters, undoing six years of hype and hysterics. It revealed one small, not all that keen academic, having been inflated by the narrators beyond all recognition, dissolving before everyone’s eyes.”

If it were only that simple. The President will rally even if his second debate performance is only marginally better: he is the choice of the “mainstream media.”

But the ripple effect of pro-life Mitt Romney’s tremendous debate performance continues. As we’ve noted the last couple of days, he is ahead in three major polls—Gallup, Rasmussen, and Pew—and also ahead in the Public Policy Polling Survey, Fox News, and the IBC/CSM/TIPPP polls. (Without getting into great detail, suddenly, five weeks out from the election, Gallup has changed the way it is conducting its poll, adding 1-3 points to the President’s totals.)

The most interesting results are from states that are not firmly locked up by either side—the swing states. Here is some encouraging data.

Rasmussen has Romney up one over Obama in eleven swing states, 49% to 48%. Broken out by state Rasmussen reports, “In Colorado  and Ohio, Obama leads by a point. He leads by two in Iowa  and Wisconsin, five in Pennsylvania  and has a double-digit lead in Michigan.  Romney leads by one in Virginia  and two in Florida. He’s ahead by three in Missouri and North Carolina. The candidates are now tied in Nevada and New Hampshire.”

According to NBC, “Romney saw his largest gain in Virginia, where he now edges the president 48 percent to 47 percent, a 3-point reversal from last week’s poll, released the day of the first presidential debate. The spread is within the poll’s margin of error. In Florida, before the debate, it was a 1-point race with Obama leading 47 percent to 46 percent. Now, it is still a 1-point race with Obama leading 48 percent to 47 percent. In Ohio, where there has been a renewed focus by the Romney campaign after the former Massachusetts governor’s strong debate performance, Obama leads 51 percent to 45 percent. That’s a 2-point uptick for Romney.”

But, as Ed Morrissey points out about Ohio, “This sample is ridiculously tilted toward Democrats [+11]. Even so, Obama lost two points since their last iteration, and only leads by six in a poll with an eleven-point advantage for Democrats.”

Reporting on a new Quinnipiac University/CBS News/New York Times poll, CBS writes that Romney is up one in Colorado and has cut Obama’s lead in Wisconsin from 6 to 3 points.

Yesterday Fox reported Romney up nationally 46% to 45% after being behind by 5 points just two weeks ago. Another not new but very encouraging result is that Mr. Romney leads Mr. Obama by 16 points among Independents and that his favorable ratings have increased so much that he is slightly ahead of Obama after trailing badly for months and months. Very ominous for the President is the response to the question which man was best at improving the economy and creating jobs. A month ago Obama was up one (47% to 46%). Now he down eight (51% to 43%), an incredible turnaround.

Finally, “The enthusiasm numbers are grim for him too, with Fox now showing a nine-point advantage for the GOP when voters are asked if they’re very or extremely interested in the election and a seven-point advantage when they’re asked if it’s ‘extremely’ important for their candidate to win,” Allahpundit wrote Wednesday.

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