By Dave Andrusko
“With three weeks to go in the campaign, Obama appears to be losing momentum, and now trails Romney by four percentage points among likely voters.”
— Lydia Saad, Gallup.
Gallup today explained in elaborate detail why pro-life Mitt Romney now enjoys a four point advantage over pro-abortion President Barack Obama, 50% to 46% among likely voters. (Obama has also lost an advantage he has enjoyed forever—among registered voters. The two men are now tied at 47%.)
The bulk of the analysis, written by Lydia Saad, is to show where Obama has lost support from 2008. The results are from surveys taken October 9-15, and are based on 2,723 likely voters drawn from more than 3,100 registered voters.
Saad divides the “key changes in Obama’s support by group since 2008” into five categories.
Obama trails Romney among college graduates by 22 point! His 30-point margin over McCain among postgraduates has shrunk to 14 points against Romney.
Obama ran even with McCain in the South. “Today, Southerners favor Romney by a 22-point margin, the largest shift of any region,” Saad writes. “Voters in the East are also less supportive, while preferences in the West and Midwest are little changed.”
Obama has not lost support among young voters. (Saad doesn’t address the likelihood that they will actually vote in substantially smaller numbers this time around.) “The difficulty for Obama is that he currently has less support among each older age group, particularly those aged 30 to 49 years.” To be specific, Obama trails among 30-49 year olds by ten points, 55% to 45% (a category he won by 6 points in 2008). Among those 50-64, Obama is running even with Romney after winning by eight points in 2008. And those 65 and older, a group he lost by eight points in 2008? He trails by 12 points now.
Obama enjoys essentially the same support among nonwhite voters as he did four years ago. Among white voters in 2008, he trailed by 12%. “Today, Obama has a more daunting 22-point deficit among whites,” Saad observes.
In 2008 Obama and McCain were tied among men, with women favoring Obama by 14 points. “Today, there is a 20-point gender gap,” Saad writes. “Women’s support for Obama shrank to six percentage points, while men favor Romney by 14 points.” Put another way, Romney is eight points ahead—14 minus 6—in the “gender gap.”
At the very end is one finding Saad barely alludes to in her narrative. Remember how we were recently told that Catholics were supposedly racing to embrace Obama? Well, he won Catholics by 6 points in 2008, but trails by 2 points in 2012 (51% to 49%). Among Protestants, Obama is taking a shellacking. He lost Protestants by 6 points four years ago but is behind by three times that margin today (59% to 41%).
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