By Dave Andrusko
The Washington Post/ABC News poll this morning is replete with positive news, especially in light of the relentless media assault on the pro-life team of Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan and the $120 million in attack ads aired by pro-abortion President Barack Obama’s re-election team. The two-fold good news is the 47% to 46% lead but more importantly a 4 point lead among independents.
I turn to Ed Morrissey who places the results in the wider context, explaining how the results are tilted in Obama’s direction because the sampling polled far more Democrats than it should have.
In 2008 the electorate favored Democrats by 7 points (39% to 32% with 29% for Independents). In 2010 the numbers were exactly even (35% for each with Independents at 30%). But the results of today’s Post/ABC News has a 9 point advantage for Democrats—even larger than 2008 when Obama won comfortably! Nonetheless….
If you read the Pollster Memo that went with the ABC story you find (Morrissey writes) “unmarried women breaking sharply for Obama (57/32), but married women favoring Romney by 15 points (55/40). The split among single and married men is similar, with Obama up 10 points among singles (51/41) but down 24 points among marrieds (35/59). That translates overall to just a six-point lead for Obama among women, 49/43, while Romney takes a nine-point lead among men, 51/42.”
The poll also shows Obama’s lead among under 40 voters is smaller (13 points) while Romney up eight points among seniors.
The Post/ABC poll has Obama’s approval at 50% to 46% disapproval among all Americans. However, the numbers are basically flipped among registered voters–47% approval and 50% disapproval.
Rasmussen reports this morning a three point advantage for Obama—47% to 44%. Gallup has Romney up by one point (47% to 46%) while Obama’s disapproval is 47% compared to 45% approval.
In Missouri, in spite of all the controversy over Rep. Akin’s remarks, a poll from the highly respected Mason-Dixon firm finds Romney ahead of Obama in this crucial swing vote by 7 points, 50% to 43%. Romney leads in every area of the state other than the metropolitan areas of St. Louis and Kansas City. Obama’s unfavorable number is 10 points higher than his favorable (48% to 38%) while Romney is virtually the opposite: 44% favorable to 32% unfavorable—a +12.