By Dave Andrusko
Another significant sign of pro-abortion President Barack Obama’s slippage, hidden by press sniping at his potential 2012 Republican rivals, is that Gallup reports “Registered voters by a significant margin now say they are more likely to vote for the ‘Republican Party’s candidate for president’ than for President Barack Obama in the 2012 election, 47% to 39%.” Gallup adds that “Preferences had been fairly evenly divided this year in this test of Obama’s re-election prospects.”
In other words nearly half the country says it will vote for anyone whose last name is not Obama.
Jeffrey M. Jones tells us that Gallup uses this wording when an incumbent’s likely opponent is unknown “as was the case in 1991-1992 and 2003-2004, when incumbents George H.W. Bush and George W. Bush, respectively, were seeking re-election.”
The real significance of this ABO (Anybody But Obama) is in the trend (growing worse); the President’s approval rating (stuck somewhere in the 40s); and how Independents are responding to the President (poorly).
To take the latter figure first, Gallup’s Jeffrey M. Jones writes that “Independent registered voters are currently more likely to vote for the Republican candidate (44%) than for Obama (34%), though one in five do not have an opinion.” That 10% gap is highly important in its own right as well as in light of “Republicans and Democrats show[ing] strong party loyalty in their vote choices, with Republicans showing somewhat stronger loyalty.”
Rasmussen, which polls daily, reported today that “Overall, 48% of voters say they at least somewhat approve of the president’s performance. Fifty-one percent (51%) at least somewhat disapprove.”
This masks a stubborn truth. On the intensity question—measured by what Rasmussen calls the Presidential Approval Index—Obama continues to do poorly—a minus 12. That figure is calculated by subtracting the number who Strongly Disapprove (in this case 39%) from the number who Strongly Approve (27%).