Huge Turnabout in Florida gives Romney 7 point lead
By Dave Andrusko
The fallout from President Obama’s dismal Denver debate performance continues unabated with potentially disastrous polling news from Florida and Virginia.
The first sentence of a story in today’s Tampa Bay Times captured the turnabout: “Barack Obama’s lackluster debate performance last week has dramatically altered the presidential race in Florida, with Mitt Romney opening up a decisive 7 percentage point lead, according to a new Tampa Bay Times/Bay News 9/Miami Herald poll.” A month ago Obama led in the same poll, 48% to 47%.
Rasmussen Reports has Mr. Romney up over the 50% mark in Florida, enjoying a 51% to 47% lead. Ed Morrissey explains that Obama is up among women by 8 points (53% to 45%) while Romney is up 18 points among men (58% to 40%). Put another way the cumulative “gender gap” is a +10 for Romney.
Meanwhile in Virginia, a crucial “swing state,” Romney leads 51% to 44%, enjoying an 11 point advantage among Independents, according to a McLaughlin & Associates poll. “Obama won independents in 2008 by a single point, 49/48, on his way to a six-point win in Virginia,” Morrissey notes. “ If Romney’s leading independents by eleven — and 229 voters is a pretty decent subsample for state polling — then Obama has almost no chance of prevailing without a massive increase in Democratic enthusiasm, one that would have to far surpass anything seen in 2008.”
Earlier this week, the NBC/WSJ/Marist poll also found Romney up one in Virginia, 48% to 47%.
Rasmussen has Mr. Romney up by two points in Virginia, 49% to 47% among likely voters.
Collectively, Rasmussen has Romney up by one point (49% to 48%) in the eleven swing states.
According to Gallup, Mr. Romney leads Mr. Obama 49% to 47%.