Two New Polls Chart Swing States, favorability numbers
By Dave Andrusko
Two new polls out today on the race between pro-life Mitt Romney and pro-abortion Barack Obama.
Quinnipiac surveyed three “swing states” for CBS/New York Times. Romney is ahead in Colorado (50% to 45%) but trails Obama in Virginia (49% to 45%) and Wisconsin (51% to 45%).
Those who understand polling far better than I do see the samples as close to representative—in other words, unlike many other polls, not terribly biased.
Virginia may be 2012’s single most competitive Senate race with two former governors—pro-life Republican George Allen (who also is a former senator) and pro-abortion Democrat Tim Kaine—slugging it out in a race that likely will be a nail-biter. Virginia went Republican in the 2009 off-year elections, electing pro-life Bob McDonnell as governor. Best guesses are that the Romney/Obama contest will be equally as close.
In Wisconsin, after winning in 2010, pro-life Gov. Scott Walker threw back a recall attempt in 2011 by Democrats. His get-out-the-vote machinery drew wide praise and obviously will be an enormous help to the Romney campaign.
A new Washington Post/ABC News poll found Obama ahead of Romney on the favorability question. Romney’s favorability number was essentially unchanged from May—40%–with a slight increase in unfavorable (from 45% to 49%). Obama’s favorable number was 53% versus 43% unfavorable.
If you look at the more significant category—registered voters—Obama’s favorability lead is cut in half–49% to 42%. (In addition, as Ed Morrissey points out, Obama’s favorability number is “probably lower among likely voters”).
Two other points. First, according to ABC News
“Among partisans, Romney’s caught up with Obama in popularity within his own party; 83 percent of Republicans rate Romney positively, as do 84 percent of Democrats for Obama. That’s Romney’s best-ever rating with the party faithful, up 25 points since mid-March.”
Thus, the party continues to rally around Mr. Romney after a rough primary season.
Second, Mr. Romney has been subjected to a multi-million dollar negative ad campaign that is as intense as it is unfair. With the Republican National Convention coming up at the end of the month, Mr. Romney will have a chance to introduce himself to all those Americans who know him largely by the character assassination ads that are a staple of the Obama re-election team.
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