A brief update on presidential polls
By Dave Andrusko
While my family is on vacation, every day or two I will write a couple of posts which I hope are helpful. They will all be brief.
Next week is the Republican National Convention at which time the pro-life team of Mitt Romney and Rep. Paul Ryan will become the party’s official standard bearers. Here is a brief look at a few (out of many) polls.
Gallup offers two numbers of interest. Gov. Romney leads President Obama 47% to 45%. Gallup’s numbers are always useful because it surveys such a huge audience.
President Obama’s favorable/unfavorable numbers continue underwater: 46% to 49%.
The latest AP-GfK poll shows Obama up one, 47% to 46%. In June Obama was up three. The AP has the same figure for Obama’s favorable as it has for his unfavorable ratings: 49%.
I often quote from Nate Silver of “FiveThirtyEight” at the New York Times. Silver notes that not so long ago Obama was ahead in many more of the “swing states” than Mr. Romney but that that has changed.
Referring to ten states in particular Silver writes, “If you simply count the scientific polls that have been conducted in those states since Aug. 1, Mr. Obama has led in 13 of them, Mr. Romney has led in 11, and there have been two exact ties. This marks a contrast from June and July, when Mr. Obama held leads in polls of the top 10 states about four times as often as Mr. Romney did.”