What do these latest numbers tell us about Romney versus Obama?
By Dave Andrusko
Any honest survey at this stage of the campaign would find that pro-life Mitt Romney and pro-abortion President Barack Obama are within a point of one another. So when the new NBC News/Wall Street Journal survey concludes that President Obama is ahead of Gov. Romney 49% to 43% lead, you know that something is seriously off.
How could they reach that conclusion? By having a sample of registered voters that gives Democrats a 12 point advantage, which is simply unbelievable. Why do I say that?
If you look at who voted in 2008 and 2010, the best conclusion you can draw is that there will probably be about as many Republicans as Democrats voting in 2012. (Ignore the enthusiasm factor which we’ll get back to in a minute.) Thus, if the sample in the new poll is to be truly representative, it ought to have roughly as many Republicans in it as Democrats—not give Democrats a 12 point advantage.
What else is of interest in NBC News/Wall Street Journal survey. Obama’s negatives continue to rise. From MSNBC’s “First Read,”
“The president’s favorable/unfavorable score in the poll is 49 percent to 43 percent, a slight change from June when it was 47 percent to 38 percent.
“Moreover, 33 percent view Obama very positively, while 32 percent view him very negatively – which is his highest ‘very negative’ number in poll.
“By comparison, Romney’s overall favorable/unfavorable score is 35 percent to 40 percent, with 24 percent viewing him ‘very’ negatively – also his highest mark here.”
As “Allahpundit” observes, “Only once before has Obama been as high as 30 percent when people were asked if they viewed him ‘very negatively.’”
Two other very interesting nuggets. Gallup’s results continue the theme that Republicans are more enthusiastic than Democrats. Under the headline, “Democratic Voting Enthusiasm Down Sharply From 2004, 2008,” we learn
“Democrats are significantly less likely now (39%) than they were in the summers of 2004 and 2008 to say they are ‘more enthusiastic about voting than usual’ in the coming presidential election. Republicans are more enthusiastic now than in 2008, and the same as in 2004.”
Specifically, that means a 51% to 39% Republican advantage in voter enthusiasm. Explanation? Gallup’s Jeffrey M. Jones argues
“The voting enthusiasm measure gives a sense of Americans’ motivation to turn out and vote but probably also their expectations of their preferred party’s chances of winning. Thus, the Republican advantage may indicate a greater likelihood of voting among Republicans but also greater optimism about a Republican victory than was the case in 2008. In turn, Democrats are probably less optimistic about their chances of winning than they were in 2008.”
The other interesting tidbit: Michigan, which has been a strong Democratic stronghold in presidential elections, gets closer by the day. Last month a survey by Mitchell Research & Communications showed President Obama up a point. Now he is down a point.
The Detroit News explains that “The results are consistent with other polls showing Romney closing the gap since becoming the presumptive GOP candidate. Obama once had a commanding lead in Michigan, as much as double figures in one May poll.”
Obama carried Michigan by 17 points in 2008.
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